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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 24
2017-10-15 04:40:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150240 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 Ophelia remains an impressive hurricane in infrared satellite imagery. The hurricane continues to exhibit a large well-defined eye within a ring of cold cloud tops. However, the overall cloud pattern has started to elongate and there has been a slight erosion of the area of cloud tops over the west and southwest portions of the circulation as dry air and a frontal boundary encroaches on the hurricane. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies continue to support an intensity of 100 kt. The aforementioned changes in the cloud pattern and an expansion of the wind field as noted by an earlier ASCAT overpass suggest that extratropical transition has begun. The wind field is expect to significantly expand over the next 12 to 24 hours, which is likely to lead to a gradual decrease in the maximum winds. Ophelia is forecast to complete extratropical transition within 24 hours, but it is expected to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on Monday. The system is forecast to occlude and interact with land, which should cause a faster rate of weakening in 48 to 72 hours, with dissipation expected shortly thereafter. Ophelia is moving northeastward, or 055/24 kt ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving over the northeastern Atlantic. The hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward tonight, then turn north-northeastward with an additional increase in forward speed by late Sunday and Sunday night. After the system occludes in a couple of days, it should begin to slow down. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory. Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or the UK until Monday, wind and rains will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores tonight behind a cold front that has moved through the islands in the wake of Ophelia. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 37.3N 21.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 40.1N 17.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 45.7N 13.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 16/1200Z 51.4N 10.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0000Z 56.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0000Z 60.0N 2.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-15 04:40:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA PASSING EAST OF THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 14 the center of Ophelia was located near 37.3, -21.5 with movement NE at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 24
2017-10-15 04:40:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150239 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 ...LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA PASSING EAST OF THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.3N 21.5W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 21.5 West. Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A continued northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will continue to pass east of the Azores tonight, and approach Ireland on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin later tonight, but Ophelia is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores through tonight, primarily due to a cold front that has passed through the islands. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2017-10-15 04:40:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 150239 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0300 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 24
2017-10-15 04:39:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150239 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0300 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 21.5W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 130SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 21.5W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 22.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.1N 17.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 45.7N 13.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 200SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 51.4N 10.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. 50 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 56.0N 7.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...120NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 60.0N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 21.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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