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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

2017-10-14 04:33:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 140233 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0300 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)

2017-10-14 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CORE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AZORES ON SATURDAY EVENING... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 13 the center of Ophelia was located near 33.0, -30.6 with movement ENE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 20

2017-10-14 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017 ...CORE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AZORES ON SATURDAY EVENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 30.6W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 30.6 West. Ophelia is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast through Saturday evening. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Ophelia will pass south of the southeastern Azores by late Saturday or early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is expected to remain a powerful cyclone for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores beginning late Saturday or Saturday night, primarily due to an approaching cold front. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores through Saturday night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 20

2017-10-14 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 140232 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0300 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 30.6W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 30.6W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 31.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.3N 27.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.3N 17.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 46.0N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 56.0N 7.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 300SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 62.0N 1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 30.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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