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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)

2017-10-14 10:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES THIS EVENING... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 14 the center of Ophelia was located near 33.9, -28.6 with movement ENE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 21

2017-10-14 10:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140853 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 ...CENTER OF CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 28.6W ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 28.6 West. Ophelia is moving toward the east-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and a continued east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast through this evening. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Ophelia will pass to the south and southeast of the southeastern Azores by tonight or early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by slow weakening on Monday and Tuesday. However Ophelia is still expected to remain a powerful cyclone for the next couple of days as it approaches Ireland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores beginning this afternoon or tonight, primarily due to an approaching cold front. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores through Saturday night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 21

2017-10-14 10:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 140853 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0900 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 28.6W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 28.6W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 29.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 35.3N 25.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 38.3N 20.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 43.0N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 48.4N 12.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 57.4N 6.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 300SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 63.1N .5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 28.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics

2017-10-14 04:39:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Oct 2017 02:39:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Oct 2017 02:39:33 GMT

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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 20

2017-10-14 04:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 140233 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017 The eye of Hurricane Ophelia continues to be remarkably distinct on satellite and remains surrounded by a ring of deep convection. An average of objective and subjective Dvorak numbers still support an initial intensity of 85 kt. The hurricane has managed to move through an area of relatively low shear and maintain its intensity so far. This is about to change in a day or so when a cold front reaches the circulation of the hurricane and the shear increases substantially. By then, any increase in intensity should be triggered by baroclinic forces as the cyclone becomes extratropical. The NHC forecast calls for Ophelia to become extratropical in about 48 hours and dissipate or absorbed by another large low beyond 4 days. Given that the cyclone is forecast to become extratropical, the wind field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength. By 96 hours, Ophelia should have weakened due to the interaction with land, causing the surface circulation to become ill-defined, and dissipation is expected shortly thereafter. Now that the cyclone is well embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, it is moving faster toward the east-northeast or 060 degrees at 17 kt. An additional increase in forward speed is anticipated as a large high-latitude trough accelerates the westerly flow. Track models are in very good agreement and this increases the confidence in the NHC forecast which is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope. Although the center of Ophelia is not expected to reach Ireland or the UK for another 2-3 days, wind and rain effects will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores beginning Saturday night primarily due to an approaching cold front. However, any track deviation to the left could bring stronger winds associated with Ophelia's circulation to the islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 33.0N 30.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 34.3N 27.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 40.3N 17.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 46.0N 14.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/0000Z 56.0N 7.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/0000Z 62.0N 1.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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