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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 26

2017-10-15 16:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 151443 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 ...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.6N 16.0W ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ENE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 16.0 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will approach Ireland tomorrow morning. However, strong winds and rains should begin earlier. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Ophelia should maintain hurricane force winds until it reaches Ireland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to completion by this afternoon. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26

2017-10-15 16:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 151443 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 1500 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 16.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 26

2017-10-15 16:42:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151442 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 1500 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN...AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 16.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 33 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 130SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 200SE 600SW 320NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 16.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 16.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 46.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 120SE 120SW 95NW. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 180SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 51.5N 9.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 90SE 100SW 0NW. 50 KT...180NE 180SE 210SW 180NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 270SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.0N 5.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...150NE 210SE 90SW 150NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 60.5N 1.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.6N 16.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 25

2017-10-15 11:00:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150900 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 Although the satellite appearance of Ophelia has been slowly degrading this morning, the cyclone remains an impressive hurricane due to it being over the relatively cool waters of the northeastern Atlantic. A testament to Ophelia's strength is a late arriving buoy report 25 nmi southeast of the center of the eye from around 0200Z, which indicated that the pressure in the southeastern portion of the large eye or eyewall was 970.9 mb. However, Dvorak intensity estimates have been steadily decreasing since that buoy report, so the intensity has been lowered to 90 kt for this advisory. Ophelia continues to accelerate and the hurricane is now moving 050/30 kt. Water vapor imagery indicates that a deepening trough just to west of Ophelia is moving quickly eastward, and that the cyclone is now well embedded within the deep-layer southwesterly flow on the east side of the trough. As a result, Ophelia is expected to turn toward the north-northeast by tonight and be accompanied by a slight increase in forward speed. The NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Ophelia reaching the southern coast of Ireland in 24-30 hours, and then move across the remainder of the country Monday night, and then move across Northern Ireland and northern Great Britain on Tuesday. Ophelia is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by 24 hours when extratropical transition should be completed, although the transition to an extratropical cyclone could occur as early as 12 hours. Regardless of the exact timing, post-tropical cyclone Ophelia is forecast to remain a powerful storm with hurricane-force winds when it reaches Ireland on Monday. The system is forecast to occlude and interact with land, which should cause a faster rate of weakening in 48 to 72 hours, with dissipation expected shortly thereafter. Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or the UK until Monday, strong winds and rains will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 39.0N 18.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 43.0N 15.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 49.0N 11.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 16/1800Z 54.0N 8.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0600Z 57.7N 4.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0600Z 60.8N .1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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