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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2017-10-15 10:40:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 150840 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0900 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)

2017-10-15 10:40:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 15 the center of Ophelia was located near 39.0, -18.3 with movement NE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 25

2017-10-15 10:40:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150840 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0900 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 18.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 130SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 480SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 18.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 19.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 43.0N 15.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 49.0N 11.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 200SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 54.0N 8.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 57.7N 4.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...120NE 180SE 180SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 60.8N .1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVR WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 18.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 25

2017-10-15 10:40:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150840 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 ...OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 18.3W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF THE AZORES ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 18.3 West. Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A continued northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach Ireland on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected today and on Monday, but Ophelia is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). Ophelia's eye recently passed near a drifting buoy that measured a pressure of 970.9 mb (28.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to completion by this afternoon. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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