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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-14 22:50:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Oct 2017 20:50:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Oct 2017 20:50:31 GMT
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 23
2017-10-14 22:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142037 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 Ophelia continues to have an impressive appearance in satellite imagery. The eye has remained clear all afternoon, surrounded by a very symmetric ring of cold cloud tops. Since the cloud pattern has not changed significantly over the past few hours, the intensity has been held at 100 kt. Microwave imagery and scatterometer retrievals indicate that beneath the cold canopy, Ophelia's structure is beginning to deteriorate, at least slightly. A GMI overpass around 1700 UTC indicated that the vortex is beginning to tilt toward the east with height, probably a result of increasing southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level trough to the west. Furthermore, a pair of earlier ASCAT passes suggested that an approaching cold front is already infringing on the NW quadrant of the circulation, within about 80 n mi of Ophelia's eye. Given the close proximity of the cold front and upper-level trough, extratropical transition will likely begin within about 12 hours. A favorable baroclinic environment may allow the cyclone to deepen as the wind field increases in size, so only a slight decrease of the maximum wind is expected through 36 hours. After that time, the post-tropical cyclone will likely occlude and interact with land, causing a faster rate of weakening and resulting in the eventual dissipation of the surface circulation in about 96 hours. Ophelia continues to pick up forward speed and the initial motion estimate is now 055/24 kt. The hurricane remains embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough, and this will keep Ophelia on a northeast or north-northeast heading through the next 72 hours. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, though it has shifted southward a little for the first 24 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, and is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus throughout the forecast period. Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or the UK until Monday, wind and rains will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores after Ophelia passes to the south and east tonight as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 35.9N 23.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 38.0N 20.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 42.8N 15.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 48.8N 12.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1800Z 54.0N 9.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1800Z 59.5N 3.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-14 22:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA PASSING SOUTH OF THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 14 the center of Ophelia was located near 35.9, -23.7 with movement NE at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 23
2017-10-14 22:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 142036 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 ...EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA PASSING SOUTH OF THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.9N 23.7W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the clear eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 23.7 West. Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A continued northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Sunday night. On the forecast track, the core of Ophelia will continue to pass south and east of the Azores tonight. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected tonight, but the hurricane is likely to become post-tropical by early Monday morning, if not sooner. Ophelia is forecast to remain a powerful cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The wind field of Ophelia is forecast to expand substantially and wind and rain effects in Ireland and the UK are expected to reach the coast well before the arrival of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores through tonight, primarily due to a cold front currently passing through the islands. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the central and southeastern Azores through Saturday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2017-10-14 22:37:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 142036 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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