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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 19
2017-10-13 22:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 132042 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017 Ophelia's eye has become better defined over the past 6 hours. Although cloud tops near the inner core of the hurricane are warmer than 24 hours ago, a ring of -50 deg C or colder cloud tops still surrounds the eye. Dvorak current intensity estimates have not changed substantially, and a blend of objective and subjective classifications still supports an initial intensity of 85 kt. Little change in strength is expected while Ophelia remains a hurricane, since the relatively cool SSTs along the hurricane's path will likely be offset by low shear and cold upper-level temperatures for the next 36 h. Extratropical transition will likely begin shortly after that time, as Ophelia begins to interact with a large upper-level trough approaching from the west. The dynamical guidance suggests that Ophelia will deepen in response to the trough, and although the forecast does not explicitly show it, I can not rule out that Ophelia will briefly intensify as it undergoes extratropical transition. By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to occlude and begin weakening, though the expansion of the wind field will result in impacts over portions of the British Isles, regardless of its exact location or strength. By 96 hours, continued weakening and interaction with land will likely cause the surface circulation to become ill-defined, and dissipation is expected shortly thereafter. Ophelia is beginning to accelerate toward the east-northeast and the initial motion estimate is 060/11 kt. Very little change has been made to the official track forecast. Ophelia is still expected to continue picking up speed on an east-northeast heading while passing south of the Azores during the next 24 to 36 hours. By 48 hours, interaction with the aforementioned upper-level trough will cause Ophelia to turn toward the northeast and approach Ireland and the western UK in about 72 h. The track guidance is tightly clustered, especially through 72 h, and the new NHC track forecast is close to the various multi-model consensus aids. Although the center of Ophelia is not expected to reach Ireland or the UK until about day 3, wind and rain effects will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due to an approaching cold front. Any deviation to the left of Ophelia's forecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 32.3N 31.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 33.4N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 35.2N 25.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 38.2N 20.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 43.1N 16.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 53.2N 10.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 17/1800Z 60.5N 2.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2017-10-13 22:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 13 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 132042 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC FRI OCT 13 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-13 22:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA MAINTAINING STRENGTH WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 13 the center of Ophelia was located near 32.3, -31.8 with movement ENE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 19
2017-10-13 22:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 132041 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017 ...OPHELIA MAINTAINING STRENGTH WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 31.8W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 31.8 West. Ophelia is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast through Saturday evening. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will pass near or southeast of the southeastern Azores by early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours and Ophelia is expected to remain a powerful cyclone for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due to an approaching cold front. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores through Saturday night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 19
2017-10-13 22:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 13 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 132041 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC FRI OCT 13 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 31.8W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 31.8W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 32.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.4N 29.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 35.2N 25.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 38.2N 20.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 43.1N 16.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 220SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 53.2N 10.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 60.5N 2.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 31.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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