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Hurricane Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 16
2017-07-26 10:42:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 260841 TCMEP5 HURRICANE IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 121.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 121.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 121.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.1N 123.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.8N 124.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.7N 124.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.9N 124.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 18.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 20.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 121.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Irwin Graphics
2017-07-26 05:03:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Jul 2017 03:03:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Jul 2017 03:03:01 GMT
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Hurricane Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-07-26 04:57:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260256 TCDEP5 Hurricane Irwin Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Irwin has strengthened a little more during the past several hours. The eye of the hurricane has been occasionally evident in satellite images and cloud tops in the eyewall are quite cold, close to -80 C. The convective structure is asymmetric, however, with the majority of the deepest convection located to the west of the center. The latest Dvorak classifications have increased slightly, and support nudging the initial intensity upward to 80 kt. Irwin is moving westward at 7 kt as it is still being steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A turn to the west-southwest is expected tonight and Wednesday as Hurricane Hilary approaches from the east. The forward motion of Irwin will likely come to a halt on Thursday and Friday as Hilary passes by to the north. After that time, a general northward motion is expected as Irwin gets caught in the flow on the east side of Hilary's circulation. The models are in better agreement compared to previous cycles, but there is still a fair amount of spread in where and when Irwin makes the northward turn. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and lies closest to the multi-model consensus TVCE. The hurricane could be nearing its peak intensity, and weakening should commence soon due to moderate wind shear and the potential for cold water upwelling due to the expected slow motion of Irwin. By the end of the forecast period, Irwin will be moving over much cooler SSTs and into a drier air mass, which should continue the weakening trend. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Irwin is a very compact hurricane. ASCAT data from around 1800 UTC indicated that the tropical storm force winds extend no more than 60 n mi from the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.1N 120.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 15.7N 121.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 15.2N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 14.7N 124.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 15.5N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 18.2N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 22.0N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2017-07-26 04:56:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 260256 PWSEP5 HURRICANE IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 6(12) 5(17) 1(18) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 5( 5) 32(37) 16(53) 20(73) 1(74) X(74) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 10(24) 1(25) X(25) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 12(15) 12(27) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-26 04:56:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 the center of Irwin was located near 16.1, -120.9 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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