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Hurricane Irwin Public Advisory Number 15
2017-07-26 04:56:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 260256 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Irwin Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 ...IRWIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 120.9W ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irwin was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 120.9 West. Irwin is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-southwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue through Wednesday night. Irwin will likely become nearly stationary on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 15
2017-07-26 04:56:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 260255 TCMEP5 HURRICANE IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 120.9W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 120.9W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 120.6W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.7N 121.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.2N 123.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.7N 124.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 18.2N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 22.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 120.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Irwin Graphics
2017-07-25 22:48:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 20:48:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 20:48:26 GMT
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Hurricane Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-07-25 22:44:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 252043 TCDEP5 Hurricane Irwin Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Irwin's satellite presentation has improved since the last advisory, with a well-defined eye showing up in infrared imagery, and an elongated band extending around the western and northern side of the circulation. Using the eye pattern from the Dvorak technique yields an estimate of T4.5/77 kt, so the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt. Irwin has already strengthened beyond what we were originally forecasting, so it's a little difficult to know if it will intensify further. However, 10-15 kt of southerly shear is expected to remain over the cyclone for the next 24 hours, and the hurricane's slow motion could cause some upwelling of colder water. Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. After that time, Irwin will begin interacting with Hurricane Hilary, and since it has the smaller circulation of the two, it is likely to suffer and be the one that loses intensity. Water temperatures also cool significantly as Irwin accelerates toward the north, so more definitive weakening is expected by the end of the forecast period. Some of the global models show Irwin becoming absorbed into Hilary's circulation before the end of the forecast period, so it's possible that dissipation could occur by day 5. Irwin continues to move generally westward, but that motion is likely to become more west-southwestward from 12-48 hours as Hilary approaches from the east. The Fujiwhara interaction with Hilary will then cause Irwin to stall around day 3, and then accelerate around the southeast and then northeast side of Hilary on days 4 and 5. Although the track models all agree on this general scenario, there remain a large amount of spread regarding when and where Irwin will turn toward the north. To be conservative, the updated NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the previous forecast but also to the right of the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.7N 120.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 15.3N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 14.8N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 14.4N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 14.3N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 14.7N 123.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 17.5N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-25 22:36:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... ...EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH HURRICANE HILARY LATER THIS WEEK... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 the center of Irwin was located near 15.7, -120.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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