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Tropical Storm ELIDA Graphics

2014-06-30 20:18:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2014 18:18:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2014 15:05:34 GMT

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Graphics

2014-06-30 17:13:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2014 14:49:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2014 15:05:34 GMT

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 1

2014-06-30 16:59:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 301458 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the low pressure area offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico has become better organized overnight. First-light visible imagery shows a partially exposed low-level center of circulation on the northwestern edge of a deep convective cloud mass due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. In addition, ship A8ER9, the Zim Savannah, reported 50-knot winds somewhat above 10 meters at 0900 UTC in the northwestern quadrant, and then reported 42 kt at 1200 UTC in the southeastern quadrant after it passed through the center. Based primarily on the aforementioned ship data, the initial intensity estimate is set at 45 kt. The initial motion estimate is 310/10. Elida should move northwestward today, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico, in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge extending southwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. However, the forward motion of the storm should markedly decrease after that once the cyclone reaches a col area, with a west-southwestward or southwestward drift shown by global models in a day or two. The subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild to the north of Elida later in the forecast period, which should allow for Elida to move westward away from the coast at a faster forward speed. The NHC track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE but not as fast as the ECMWF by day 5. Although the sea surface temperatures are very high along the track of Elida, strong upper-level northwesterly winds associated with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should inhibit significant intensification during the next few days. After about 72 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease, but by then the cyclone should be embedded in a somewhat drier and more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 17.3N 103.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 17.9N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 18.2N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.9N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 17.6N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Summary for Tropical Storm ELIDA (EP5/EP052014)

2014-06-30 16:45:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 30 the center of ELIDA was located near 17.3, -103.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Public Advisory Number 1

2014-06-30 16:45:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 301444 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 103.9W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK ...THE CENTER OF ELIDA SHOULD BE NEAR BUT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA AND MICHOACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF JALISCO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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