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Tropical Storm ELIDA Public Advisory Number 2

2014-06-30 22:46:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 302046 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 ...ELIDA SLOWS DOWN TO THE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 104.2W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION COULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF ELIDA AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA AND MICHOACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF JALISCO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 2

2014-06-30 22:46:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 302046 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 Satellite imagery indicates that the overall cloud pattern associated with Elida has changed little, with the main convection displaced in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation due to moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. Despite the rather disheveled looking cloud appearance, two ASCAT passes at 1606 UTC and 1700 UTC indicated that Elida still possessed a well-defined circulation center and 45-kt winds in the southeastern quadrant. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at 45 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/03 kt. The aforementioned ASCAT wind data indicate that Elida has slowed down considerably during the past 6 hours. Most of the reliable models have been predicting that a sharp decrease in the forward speed would occur in previous model runs, so the official forecast has followed this scenario for the next 48 hours since Elida now appears to be caught in a break in the east-west oriented subtropical ridge located across south-central Mexico. It is possible that Elida could even stall and move erratically, but the cyclone and its strongest winds are expected to remain offshore of the coast of Mexico during the next 2 days. After that, the subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild to the north of the cyclone, which should induce a westward motion at a faster forward speed away from Mexico. The official track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory track, and is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. Moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to affect the cyclone for at least the next 3 days, which should prevent any significant intensification from occurring despite the very warm sea-surface temperatures and moist mid-level environment surrounding the storm. By days 4 and 5, however, the shear is forecast to decrease significantly, which should allow for some strengthening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the multi-model consensus IVCN for the next 72 hours, and then follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 17.4N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.6N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 17.6N 104.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 17.5N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 17.2N 104.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 17.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Advisory Number 2

2014-06-30 22:46:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 302045 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.2W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.2W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 104.1W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 104.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.6N 104.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N 105.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 104.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 105.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.2N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 104.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm ELIDA (EP5/EP052014)

2014-06-30 21:17:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL STORM ELIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 11:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 30 the center of ELIDA was located near 17.3, -104.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm ELIDA Public Advisory Number 1A

2014-06-30 21:17:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 301917 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ELIDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 1100 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 CORRECTED CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS HEADER ...TROPICAL STORM ELIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 104.2W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK ...THE CENTER OF ELIDA SHOULD BE NEAR BUT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA AND MICHOACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF JALISCO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER UNKNOWN

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