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Tropical Storm ELIDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-06-30 16:45:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 301444 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) 1(13) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 14 16(30) 7(37) 4(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 21 14(35) 6(41) 3(44) 2(46) 1(47) X(47) MANZANILLO 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 12 2(14) 4(18) 3(21) 2(23) X(23) 1(24) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-06-30 16:44:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 301444 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 103.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.9N 104.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 104.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.9N 105.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 17.6N 106.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 103.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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