Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 22

2014-09-21 16:38:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 211438 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014 Polo is not in good shape. Strong easterly shear continues to affect the cyclone, keeping the low-level center exposed to the east of the nearest deep convection. The system has been producing somewhat regular bursts of deep convection over the past couple of days, with the latest burst currently on the increase. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with the 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate. With no cessation of the strong shear seen in the short term, further weakening seems likely to occur. However, Polo will be moving over warm enough water to sustain additional bursts of convection, and thermodynamic variables will only gradually become less conducive. The NHC intensity forecast, like the previous one, shows slow weakening but maintains the system as a tropical cyclone longer. The new forecast is just above the latest intensity guidance and shows dissipation in about 3 days in line with global model output. Polo is moving slowly west-northwestward or 290/06 kt. A continued west-northwestward and then westward track is expected during the next day or so as a result of a westward building mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. Once Polo becomes shallower in nature, a bend of the track toward the southwest and south-southwest is indicated as the cyclone is pushed by a north-northeasterly flow on the eastern side of a low-level ridge. The new track forecast does not depart significantly from the previous one but is shifted slightly to the right in the direction of the well-performing multi-model consensus, TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 21.9N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 22.2N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 21.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z 21.4N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 20.1N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 20

2014-09-21 04:34:10| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 18

2014-09-20 16:32:36| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 34

2014-09-19 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 192031 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 Satellite imagery indicates that Edouard consists of a large but tight swirl of low-level clouds. Since the cyclone has been absent any deep convection for more than 12 hours, Edouard is being declared a post-tropical cyclone at this time. A blend of the 1800 UTC TAFB Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers suggests an initial intensity of 35 kt, which is in basic agreement with a morning ASCAT pass. Post-tropical cyclone Edouard should continue moving over cooler waters and in an environment of strong northwesterly wind shear. Thus, additional weakening is expected during the next day or so prior to Edouard becoming extratropical in about 36 hours when it merges with a front. Although the center of the cyclone jogged southeastward earlier this morning, it has since resumed an eastward motion at a faster forward speed or 090/06. Now a shallow feature, Edouard should accelerate eastward on the north side of a low-level ridge of high pressure during the next 24 hours. The track should then bend southeastward and southward around the flow associated with a mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, only shifted slightly to the left to be in line with the TVCA multi-model consensus. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Edouard. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 39.5N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 20/0600Z 39.4N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 20/1800Z 39.0N 33.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z 38.0N 31.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 36.3N 30.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman

Tags: number discussion forecast cyclone

 

Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 14

2014-09-19 17:16:30| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [1065] [1066] [1067] [1068] [1069] [1070] [1071] [1072] [1073] [1074] [1075] [1076] [1077] [1078] [1079] [1080] [1081] [1082] [1083] [1084] next »