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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 22

2014-09-15 16:56:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151455 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 Microwave satellite images indicate that the center of Hurricane Odile is displaced southwest of the conventional fixes, placing the center just inland along the west coast of Baja California Sur north of Santa Fe. The eye is still apparent in the microwave data, so the intensity is being lowered slowly since much of the low-level circulation is still over water on both sides of the Baja peninsula. The initial motion is northwestward or 325/12 kt, based mainly on microwave satellite positions. Odile is expected to move slowly northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours, essentially remaining inland over the Baja California peninsula. As Odile rounds the western portion of a deep-layer ridge located over northern Mexico, the cyclone is expected to emerge over the northern Gulf of California as a severely weakened and shallow low pressure system on Day 3, and is expected to move inland over northwestern Mexico as a remnant low on Day 4. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. Due to the expected prolonged interaction with the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula, the surface winds are forecast to rapidly decrease during the next 48 hours, and the official intensity forecast closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model. However, it is important to note that the circulation aloft will not weaken as quickly as the low-level flow and, as a result, wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains can often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory. In some elevated locations, the winds can be even greater. Since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of Odile, users should not focus on the exact forecast track. Also, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States during the next few days. These factors, in combination with Odile's eventual slow forward speed, will likely result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 24.7N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 26.0N 112.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/1200Z 27.5N 113.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0000Z 28.6N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 29.6N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1200Z 30.5N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 19/1200Z 31.0N 112.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 17

2014-09-15 16:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151437 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 Satellite images show that the eye of Edouard has become larger and more distinct during the past few hours, with a fairly symmetric inner-core convective pattern. Despite the improved structure, Dvorak classifications were unchanged from earlier so the initial wind speed is held at 90 kt. Three NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft are currently en route to investigate Edouard and will provide excellent data to help assess its intensity and structure. Edouard has been moving on a steady northwestward path at about 13 kt for the past 24 hours, but a gradual turn toward the north is expected during the next day or so while the subtropical ridge to its north shifts eastward and weakens. By late Tuesday and Wednesday, Edouard is forecast to be embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, causing the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the east or southeast is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the system is steered by the flow to the west of a deep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is nudged to the left of the previous track through 72 hours, toward the latest TVCA guidance. Some strengthening appears likely during the next 24 to 36 hours while the hurricane remains in favorable conditions. Beyond that time, cooler water, dry air, and a pronounced increase in shear should cause the system to weaken steadily. Post-tropical transition is expected by day 4 when the cyclone is forecast to be over sea surface temperature below 23 C. The post-tropical phase of the track and intensity forecast is partially based on guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 27.3N 55.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 32.8N 56.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 35.4N 54.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 40.0N 45.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 40.5N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 16

2014-09-15 10:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150854 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 Data from a NASA Global Hawk mission indicate that Edouard has strengthened since yesterday's NOAA P-3 flight. A dropsonde released in the eyewall measured a surface pressure of 969 mb at 0424 UTC, and based on pressure-wind relationships, the corresponding intensity would normally be near the threshold for a major hurricane. This is supported by a 95-100 kt estimate from the UW-CIMSS ADT. On the other hand, low-level wind data from the dropsondes, as well as Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, yield an intensity estimate between 75-80 kt. As a compromise between the data, the intensity is raised to 90 kt on this advisory. Environmental conditions should support some additional intensification during the next couple of days. Modest southeasterly shear could affect Edouard for the next day or so, but the shear is expected to diminish by 36-48 hours. In addition, the hurricane is forecast to remain over warm water for another 2-3 days, and the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Edouard reaching major hurricane status between 24-48 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over much colder water, and a fast weakening trend is expected by day 3. Edouard is forecast to be over 22C water by days 4 and 5, which is likely to cause the system to lose its deep convection and become post-tropical. At this point, it appears that Edouard will remain separate from any frontal zones over the north Atlantic and not become extratropical during the forecast period. The initial motion remains 305/13 kt. Edouard is expected to turn northward around a mid-tropospheric high located to its east and then northeastward in 2-3 days when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and there is very little spread among the various models. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is nudged in the direction of the multi-model consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 26.9N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 27.9N 55.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 29.6N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 31.6N 57.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 34.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 39.1N 48.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 41.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 20/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 21

2014-09-15 10:54:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150854 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 Satellite data showed that Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas around 0445 UTC. The estimated intensity of 110 kt at landfall ties Odile with Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the satellite era in the state of Baja California Sur. Since landfall, the eye of Odile has filled in conventional satellite imagery, but the inner-core convection remains strong and very symmetric. The initial wind speed has been reduced to 100 kt for this advisory. The hurricane should steadily weaken during the next few days while the circulation and inner-core continue to interact with the Baja California peninsula. The latest NHC forecast is close to the intensity consensus, and is lower than the previous NHC advisory. Odile is moving north-northwestward at 14 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over the southern United States during the next couple of days. The forward speed of Odile should slow down as the cyclone weakens and becomes a more shallow system. In a few days, the low-level circulation is forecast to turn northward, then northeastward, and dissipate over northern Mexico or the northern portion of the Gulf of California in 4 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of Odile, users should not focus on the exact forecast track. Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States during the next several days. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 23.7N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/1800Z 25.1N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0600Z 26.7N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0600Z 29.0N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 30.0N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 19/0600Z 30.7N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 20

2014-09-15 05:04:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150303 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 CORRECTED STATUS FROM EXTRATROPICAL TO REMNANT LOW AT 120 HOURS Geostationary and microwave imagery indicate that the inner eyewall of the hurricane has dissipated, leaving only an outer eyewall at a radius of about 25 n mi. This broadening of the inner-core wind field normally corresponds to some weakening, but, given the uncertainties, the current intensity is held at 110 kt. This is somewhat lower than the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Since the center will be moving over or at least very near land shortly, it is unlikely that the eyewall will have time to contract and complete the eyewall replacement cycle. Weakening is expected to commence by early Monday. The amount of weakening over the next several days depends on how much the circulation interacts with the Baja California Peninsula. On the latest NHC forecast track, the center is expected to remain over land for much of the period. Therefore, the official intensity forecast is significantly lower than the previous one. The motion has been to the right and somewhat faster than earlier today. Therefore the official track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of Odile. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States by early next week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 22.6N 109.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 24.0N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0000Z 25.4N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0000Z 27.7N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 28.7N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 29.8N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 30.5N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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