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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2014-10-02 04:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020232 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 The cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with some developing convective bands. The center, however, is still exposed due to shear and is located on the northeastern edge of the thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on T2.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and the University of Wisconsin CIMMS. Global models and SHIPS guidance indicate that the shear will likely diminish, and since the cyclone is heading toward a pool of warm waters, some strengthening is forecast during the next 3 days. After that time, the cyclone should begin to interact with cooler waters and a more stable environment, resulting in gradual weakening. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 knots. A nearly permanent mid-level high pressure system over northern Mexico has been controlling the tracks of many of the cyclones in this region, and this is same story all over again. The NHC forecast calls for a west-northwest to northwest track during the next 3 days with a slow turn to the north thereafter. By then, the steering currents will probably collapse and the cyclone will meander while it weakens. The NHC forecast is just a little bit to the south of the previous one following the trend of the multi-model consensus TVCN, and considering that the ECMWF and the latest GFS models are farther south than the consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.2N 106.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.7N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 19.1N 109.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 19.6N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 21.0N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 24.0N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2014-10-01 22:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 The area of low pressure south of Manzanillo has become better defined today and has enough organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. The cloud pattern consists of a small area of central convection west of the partially exposed low-level center and a curved band wrapping around the north and west side of the circulation. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The structure of the cyclone is consistent with moderate easterly shear as shown by the SHIPS model. This shear is forecast to diminish in the next 12 to 24 hours, which should allow for some intensification while the cyclone is moving over warm SSTs for the next couple of days. Later in the period, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler SSTs west of the Baja California peninsula and encounter a somewhat drier airmass, which should lead to gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the HWRF and the SHIPS model through 48 hours and is near the SHIPS forecast after that time. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 290/07, since the center has only recently been apparent in visible imagery. In the short range, most of the track model guidance, with the exception of the GFDL and the GFDL ensemble mean, shows the cyclone moving generally west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Model spread increases markedly beyond 36 hours. The GFS and ECMWF are well to the left showing a more westward motion, while the aforementioned GFDL and its ensemble mean show a northwestward and then northward motion well to the right of the rest of the guidance. The HWRF and UKMET models are in between these solutions, showing a northward turn around day 3. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF solutions, but remains well to the right of the consensus of those models at days 3 through 5. Given the large spread in the guidance, confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period, including any potential threat to the Baja California peninsula, is lower than usual. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.3N 104.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.8N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.5N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 114.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 23.5N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 26

2014-09-30 22:57:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 302057 TCDEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 Rachel artfully draws to a close. Deep convection associated with Rachel dissipated about 15 hours ago and it is unlikely to redevelop due to unfavorable thermodynamic factors and strong shear. Based on these conditions, the cyclone is being declared a post-tropical remnant low at this time. Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased further and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. Global model guidance shows the remnant low degenerating into an open trough by Friday. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous forecast and the GFS model. During the last couple of hours, the now-shallow vortex associated with Rachel has taken on a southward drift. A slow southwestward motion is expected during the next two days as it continues to move around the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge. The track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, nearly between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions. This is the last advisory on Rachel by the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 22.9N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 01/0600Z 22.8N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1800Z 22.6N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 22.4N 119.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z 22.2N 119.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Ramos

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Tropical Depression RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 25

2014-09-30 16:51:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 301451 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 Satellite imagery indicates that deep convection associated with Rachel dissipated almost 12 hours ago, with the cyclone now consisting of a tight swirl of low- to middle-level clouds. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt in agreement with the latest satellite classifications. A continuation of southwesterly shear of around 30 kt and very unfavorable thermodynamic factors suggest that deep convection is unlikely to redevelop, and Rachel should weaken into a remnant low later today. Global model guidance shows the remnant low degenerating into an open trough in about 2 days and dissipating shortly thereafter. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus. Rachel has been nearly stationary for the last 6-12 hours, trapped in an environment of weak steering. The shallow cyclone should drift west-southwestward and westward during the next couple of days around the eastern side of a weak low-level ridge until dissipation. The track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, nearly between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 23.1N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.0N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z 22.9N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 22.7N 118.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Ramos

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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 24

2014-09-30 10:42:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300841 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 Rachel has lost all of its deep convection, although it is possible that some sporadic bursts of showers and thunderstorms could return to the circulation today. A couple of recent ASCAT passes missed the radius of maximum winds, but using a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set, perhaps generously, at 35 kt. Southwesterly shear over Rachel is forecast to become even stronger, more than 30 kt, within a day or so and continued weakening is expected. The system should degenerate into a remnant low in 12-24 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus, although just a little higher, suggesting that the cyclone could weaken even faster than indicated here. There has been little movement over the past several hours, which was anticipated by the track model guidance. Rachel is in an environment of weak steering currents, and is expected to remain so through today. A weak low-level ridge developing to the northwest and north is expected to cause the post-tropical cyclone to move very slowly west-southwestward in 1-2 days, followed by a turn toward the west. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 23.3N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 23.2N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 23.1N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z 23.0N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0600Z 22.8N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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