Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 28

2014-09-18 10:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180849 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 An 0426 UTC GCOM microwave pass showed that Edouard has a small, solid inner eyewall surrounded by a thinning outer ring of deep convection. The infrared satellite presentation has not changed appreciably from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at 75 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Edouard is over 24C water, but there is still some atmospheric instability available for the hurricane to maintain its convective structure. However, the SHIPS guidance shows the instability decreasing and westerly vertical shear increasing over 30 kt during the next 24 hours, so Edouard is expected to begin a faster weakening trend later today. The hostile conditions should cause Edouard to lose all of its deep convection in 36-48 hours, and the official forecast still calls for the system to be a post-tropical low in 48 hours and dissipate by day 5. The NHC forecast is just an update of the previous one and closely follows the ICON intensity consensus. The hurricane appears to be slowing down just a little bit and has an initial motion of 065/24 kt. Edouard is moving around the northern side of a mid-tropospheric high located over the central Atlantic, and it is forecast to turn eastward and then southeastward around this feature during the next 3 days. Most of the track models are in good agreement on this scenario. The two main outliers are the UKMET, which shows a sharper southward turn after 12 hours, and the GFDL, which shows Edouard continuing to race northeastward ahead of a cold front. The updated NHC track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models and is a little south and west of the previous forecast after 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 39.6N 45.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 40.1N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 39.9N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 39.7N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 39.7N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/0600Z 38.5N 31.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/0600Z 35.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Hurricane POLO Forecast Discussion Number 8

2014-09-18 04:35:48| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

Tags: number discussion polo forecast

 
 

Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 27

2014-09-18 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180234 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 Edouard is maintaining its strength this evening despite being over cool waters. Satellite pictures indicate that deep convection in the inner-core region has increased a little during the past few hours, and microwave images continue to show concentric eyewalls. The initial intensity is held at 75 kt, which is in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Although the hurricane has not yet weakened, very cold water along the expected track along with a substantial increase in westerly shear should cause a steady weakening during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. Post-tropical transition is expected to occur in 36 to 48 hours, when Edouard is forecast to be over waters around 23 C. The hurricane is racing to the east-northeast in the strong mid-latitude flow across the central Atlantic, with the initial motion estimated to be 060/26. A turn to the east and then southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days when the cyclone is steered by the weaker flow between a subtropical ridge to its southwest and a deep-layer low to its northeast. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the post-tropical phase is close to the guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 38.7N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 39.8N 44.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 40.2N 40.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 40.1N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/0000Z 39.4N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/0000Z 37.0N 29.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 7

2014-09-17 22:54:05| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 26

2014-09-17 22:35:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 172035 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 An earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft research mission showed a maximum 700 mb flight-level wind of 91 kt, with peak SFMR winds of 71 kt. Since the plane left a few hours ago, the satellite appearance of Edouard has become less organized, with warming convection in the eyewall and a cooling eye. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt for this advisory, a blend of the SFMR data and the higher satellite classifications. A combination of cooling waters and increasing shear should keep Edouard on a general weakening trend throughout the 120-hour period. Post-tropical transition is indicated in the latest NHC forecast at 48 hours due to Edouard moving over cold waters with strong shear. The cyclone is expected to dissipate by day 5, which is in good agreement with almost all of the global models. Edouard is moving faster to the northeast, now 055/23. A gradual turn to the east is expected, along with some decrease in forward speed by late tomorrow, due to Edouard moving becoming more steered by the subtropical ridge rather than faster mid-latitude westerlies. Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southeastward in a few days while it moves around a large trough over the eastern Atlantic. Although the general synoptic pattern has not changed, the track guidance has taken a notable eastward shift in this cycle, apparently due to the weaker low-level circulation decoupling from the mid-level northerly flow. Consequently, the latest forecast is shifted quite a bit to the east at day 4, although there probably won't be much of Edouard by that point. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 37.8N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 39.4N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 40.4N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 40.2N 39.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 40.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 20/1800Z 40.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/1800Z 38.0N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Sites : [1068] [1069] [1070] [1071] [1072] [1073] [1074] [1075] [1076] [1077] [1078] [1079] [1080] [1081] [1082] [1083] [1084] [1085] [1086] [1087] next »