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Remnants of ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 31
2014-09-17 22:24:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 172024 TCDEP5 REMNANTS OF ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014 Satellite and surface observations indicate that the low-level circulation of Odile is becoming elongated and losing definition over extreme northwestern mainland Mexico, with a number of small cloud swirls rotating within a broad cyclonic envelope. In addition, the remaining deep convection is becoming increasingly displaced from the decaying surface center. Based on these observations, Odile is no longer considered a tropical cyclone and this will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center. Because the remnants of Odile continue to represent a significant rainfall threat, the NOAA Weather Prediction Center will issue public advisories while that threat exists, beginning at 8 p.m. PDT under AWIPS header TCPEP5 and WMO header WTPZ35 KWNH. The initial motion estimate is now 045/06 kt. The remnants of Odile should continue to move toward the northeast or east-northeast across extreme northwestern Mexico tonight, and across southeastern Arizona on Thursday ahead of an eastward-moving mid-latitude trough currently approaching western Baja California. Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with the remnants of Odile will continue to be a significant threat across northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States during the next couple of days. These heavy rains will likely cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. For future details, please see information from your local weather office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 31.1N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS INLAND 12H 18/0600Z 31.9N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS INLAND 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-09-17 16:57:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 171457 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014 Edouard is maintaining two concentric rings as indicated in the latest visible satellite images and recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft wind data. Even though the central pressure is rather low, 958 mb, the pressure gradient is spread out over the large area comprising the two rings, leading to a lower peak wind than a typical cyclone would have. Flight-level and SFMR winds still support an intensity of about 80 kt, which is unchanged from the previous estimate. Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 045/20 kt. The hurricane is being steered by mid-latitude flow between the subtropical ridge and a broad trough over the western Atlantic Ocean. This pattern should force Edouard to move faster toward the east-northeast by late tonight, and eastward by late tomorrow. In a couple of days, Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southward to the west of the Azores around a large trough over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The track guidance remains tightly clustered for the first 48 hours but continues to show some divergence during the post-tropical phase. The ECMWF has remained consistent on a sharper southward turn, while the GFS is showing a more gradual equatorward motion. Because of the consistency of the ECMWF during the past few runs, the latest NHC track is staying on the southwest side of the model envelope at long range, roughly halfway between the model consensus and the ECMWF. Edouard is moving quickly toward the northeast and should pass over waters cooler than 26C in less than 12 hours. Only a gradual weakening is shown during the first 24 hours due to cooler waters and moderate shear. All of the global models show a sharp increase in shear after that time while the cyclone is moving over much colder water. Thus a more rapid weakening is shown beginning late tomorrow, which is similar to a blend of the previous NHC forecast, the Florida State Superensemble, and the intensity consensus. The cyclone is expected to become post-tropical in 2 or 3 days, which is in good agreement with the global models. Although Edouard is expected to traverse warmer waters by the end of the forecast period, strong northwesterly shear is anticipated to hinder any redevelopment potential. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 36.4N 53.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 38.3N 49.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 39.8N 44.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 40.1N 40.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 39.7N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 39.4N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/1200Z 37.5N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/1200Z 34.5N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 30
2014-09-17 16:56:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 171456 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014 First-light visible and microwave satellite imagery, along with NOAA Doppler radar data from Yuma and Tucson, suggest that the low-level center of Odile is still over the northern Gulf of California while the mid- and upper-level circulations are displaced well to the northeast over northwestern Mexico. As a result, satellite intensity estimates have been rapidly decreasing, and the initial intensity estimate has been lowered to 35 kt. The combination of the low-level blocking effect of the mountains of northwestern Mexico, plus increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and abundant dry air ahead of the aforementioned trough noted in water vapor imagery, are expected to induce continued weakening, and Odile could potentially degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate as early as this afternoon. The initial motion estimate is now 035/05 kt. A strong ridge extending westward over Mexico, in conjunction with an approaching mid-/upper-level trough to the west of Baja California, should keep Odile moving toward the northeast over the next day or so. The center of Odile or its remnants is expected to move slowly across the northern Gulf of California today, and move into northwestern Mexico and southern Arizona tonight and Thursday. The new forecast track is just an update of the previous track and lies near the consensus model TVCE. Alternatively, the low-level circulation could continue to separate from the circulation aloft and remain behind over the Gulf of California. The primary threat with Odile and its remnants will be heavy rainfall due to the large plume of deep tropical moisture that will continue to spread across northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States over the next couple of days. These heavy rains will likely cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 30.6N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 31.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 32.7N 111.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-09-17 16:55:48| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014
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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-09-17 10:51:44| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014
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