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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-09-16 22:57:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162057 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 Microwave and NOAA Hurricane Hunter radar data suggest that Edouard has begun an eyewall cycle, with a pair of concentric rings seen in a 1605 UTC GCOM microwave image. The last few passes from the aircraft had a maximum flight-level wind of 93 kt, with 85 kt from the SFMR observed a few hours ago. These data suggest an initial wind speed of 90 kt for this advisory. Since the hurricane has less than 24 hours over warm water, it is not expected to complete its eyewall cycle, and will probably slowly weaken. After that time, Edouard should continue to lose strength when it moves over much cooler water and into higher shear. The NHC forecast is lower than the previous one, below most of the guidance for the first day in consideration of the current structure, then is blended with the intensity consensus after that time. The cyclone is expected to become post-tropical in the day 3 or 4 time frame, and become extratropical by day 5 since most of the global models show it developing frontal features by that time. Edouard has turned toward the north and is moving a little faster at about 13 kt. The hurricane will move northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours while it moves on the northwest side of the subtropical high. An eastward acceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is still forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it moves around a trough over the eastern Atlantic. Model guidance is in much better agreement than the last cycle and the official forecast is very close to the previous one, near the model consensus and the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 32.3N 57.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 34.3N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 37.2N 52.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 39.7N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 40.9N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 40.2N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 39.4N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/1800Z 36.0N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 27
2014-09-16 22:49:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162049 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 The convective cloud pattern of Odile has stabilized during the past 6 hours, due in part to the center moving closer to the very warm waters of the Gulf of California. Visible and microwave satellite imagery, along with surface observations from Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico indicate that the low-level circulation center is located just inland along the east-central coast of the Baja California peninsula very near Bahia de Los Angeles. A 1642 UTC ASCAT-B partial overpass showed one 44-kt vector and two 42-kt vectors in the southeastern quadrant, so the advisory intensity is set to 45 kt. The same wind data were used to adjust the 34-kt wind radii over the Gulf of California and to remove the tropical storm warning along the west coast of Baja California. The initial motion estimate is 360/06 kt. Odile appears to now be moving northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge that is situated over mainland Mexico. The cyclone should emerge over the Gulf of California later this evening, turn toward the northeast on Wednesday, and move inland over northwestern Mexico by Wednesday evening. The NHC model guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is just an extension of the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model TVCE. Remnant low positions at 36 and 48 hours have been provided for continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts. As Odile moves across 31C SSTs of the northern Gulf of California, little change in intensity is expected. By 24 hours and beyond, rapid weakening is expected as the cyclone moves inland over the rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico. The system is expected to dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner. Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation over the next few days. This, along with the slow motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf of California. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 29.1N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0600Z 29.9N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 17/1800Z 31.0N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND NWRN MEXICO 36H 18/0600Z 32.1N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 33.2N 111.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-09-16 22:34:11| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014
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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-09-16 16:58:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 161458 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 The convective cloud pattern of Odile has become ragged looking since the previous advisory, accompanied by significant warming of the cloud tops. The low-level circulation is still inland near the east-central coast of the Baja California peninsula with the mid- to upper-level circulations tilted to the northeast over the Gulf of California. The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on inland decay models and an earlier ASCAT overpass. The initial motion estimate is 340/08 kt. Odile should move northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge and later move over the Gulf of California later today, and turn toward the northeast on Wednesday and move inland over northwestern Mexico. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory. A 48-hour remnant low position has been provided for continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts. Odile will be moving across very warm waters of near 31C over the northern Gulf of California in the 12-24 hour period, which is expected to briefly slow the weakening process. In fact, the SHIPS and LGEM intensity models actually show some slight restrengthening in 24 hours. By 36 and 48 hours, Odile is forecast to rapidly degenerate to a remnant low inland over northwestern Mexico, with dissipation expected by 72 hours, if not sooner. Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation over the next few days. This, along with the slow motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf of California. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 28.4N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0000Z 29.2N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 30.2N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 31.2N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 32.3N 111.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-09-16 16:57:40| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014
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