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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 33

2014-09-19 16:59:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191458 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 Edouard is weakening rapidly. Strong northwesterly shear has caused the low- and mid-level centers of the cyclone to decouple during the last 12 hours. The system has also been devoid of any deep convection for some time, and unless it returns, Edouard will be declared a post-tropical cyclone later today. Using a blend of Dvorak CI and Final T numbers, the initial intensity estimate is lowered to 40 kt. A 1214 UTC ASCAT pass showed believable 33-kt wind vectors in the southwestern quadrant, suggesting that somewhat higher winds are possible elsewhere in the southern half of the circulation. Edouard is expected to spin down further during the next couple of days due to a continuation of strong northwesterly shear and its passage over cold water. Extratropical transition is indicated by the global models in about 48 hours. The intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one and now shows remnant low status sooner. Dissipation is expected in about 3 days. Edouard has significantly decelerated during the last 6-12 hours, and the initial motion estimate is 110/03. The cyclone is expected to move eastward with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so as it rounds the northern side of a low-level ridge to the south. A turn toward the southeast and south is shown after that time as the extratropical cyclone dives into the flow on the west side of a low pressure area over the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, only shifted a bit to the left but not as far left as the ECMWF and GFS solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 39.5N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 39.6N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 39.5N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 21/0000Z 38.9N 32.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z 37.3N 30.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1200Z 33.0N 30.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman

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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 32

2014-09-19 10:53:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190852 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 Satellite images indicate that Edouard has become much less organized during the past several hours. The low-level center is now exposed with no associated deep convection, with the old mid- level circulation decoupled well to the southeast. With the absence of deep convection, Edouard is probably losing strength quickly, so the initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt, a little higher than the average of the satellite estimates in consideration of the earlier Global Hawk/ASCAT data. Edouard is unlikely to redevelop organized deep convection since it is over 23C water with strong shear. Thus, the storm should continue to weaken and will likely become post-tropical in about 12 hours. Extratropical transition is indicated in a couple of days since most of the global models are now showing the former tropical cyclone developing frontal features by that time. Edouard has slowed down considerably during the past few hours, with initial motion estimate of 090/6 kt. A continued eastward motion is predicted for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the southeast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the flow between the subtropical high and a deep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic Ocean. The latest NHC forecast is blend of the previous NHC prediction and the latest dynamical model consensus, which results in a small westward shift in the 48-72 hour time frame. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 39.8N 38.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 39.7N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 20/0600Z 39.7N 35.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/1800Z 39.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 21/0600Z 38.5N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z 34.5N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 13

2014-09-19 10:51:30| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 12

2014-09-19 04:36:57| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 31

2014-09-19 04:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190236 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 Edouard has not changed much during the past several hours. Microwave images indicate that the low-level center is located on the western side of the main area of deep convection due to about 30 kt of westerly shear. Despite being in a strong shear environment and over cool waters, an ASCAT pass just before 0000 UTC indicated that Edouard has not weakened significantly. Maximum reliable winds seen in the ASCAT data are in the 55 to 60 kt range, and dropsonde wind reports from the NASA Global Hawk suggest a similar intensity. Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this advisory. The storm is expected to remain in hostile conditions, therefore, steady weakening is anticipated and Edouard is forecast to become post-tropical in about 24 hours. The global models show the post-tropical cyclone degenerating into a trough by 96 hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Satellite fixes suggest that Edouard is moving eastward at about 15 kt on the north side of a subtropical high. A continued eastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is predicted for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the southeast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the flow between the subtropical high and a deep layer low over the northeast Atlantic Ocean. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus, TVCA. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were updated based on the ASCAT pass and the NASA Global Hawk dropsonde data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 39.9N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 39.9N 36.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 21/0000Z 39.5N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 22/0000Z 36.0N 29.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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