je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-09-18 22:38:24| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 30
2014-09-18 22:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 182036 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 Over the past 6 hours, visible and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the upper-level and low-level circulations have started to decouple due to strong westerly vertical wind shear, with the upper-level center having become displaced more than 60 nmi east of the low-level center. The initial motion of 090/14 kt is based mainly on microwave fixes. Edouard is forecast to move around the northern and eastern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores ridge located along 30N-32N latitude. The models are in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving eastward for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn to the southeast on Day 3 and to the south on Day 4. The new NHC forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track, and basically lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. Edouard is forecast to remain over sub-24C SSTs and encounter increasing westerly shear of near 35 kt in 12-24 hours. The combination of these adverse conditions is expected to result in the rapid demise of Edouard, with the system becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours, if not sooner. The global models continue to show the circulation of Edouard dissipating by Day 5 as it interacts with and perhaps becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone. The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and closely follows a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 39.9N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 39.9N 39.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 39.8N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/0600Z 39.8N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 20/1800Z 39.8N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/1800Z 37.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z 32.5N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 29
2014-09-18 16:36:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 181436 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 A 0906 UTC SSMIS pass showed that the eyewall of Edouard had opened up on the southwest side and the circulation was becoming somewhat tilted with height. This tilt was confirmed by an ASCAT pass around 1230 UTC. The coverage of cold convective tops is gradually decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. Given that the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and experiencing increased vertical wind shear, steady weakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Edouard should lose its deep convection in 36 to 48 hours and become post-tropical by that time. Global model fields show the circulation of Edouard dissipating by the end of the period, and that is reflected in the official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and is close to the IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is now eastward, or 085/22, as Edouard is currently located north of a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The cyclone will move eastward and then southeastward around this ridge during the next 72 hours, and then turn southward by day 4. Most of the track model guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, with the continued exception of the GFDL and UKMET which show a more northeastward and southward motion, respectively. The new NHC track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is similar to the previous advisory. The initial wind radii were modified based on data from the above-mentioned ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 39.9N 42.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 40.1N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/1200Z 37.5N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z 33.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane POLO Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-09-18 16:36:25| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014
Tags: number
discussion
polo
forecast
Hurricane POLO Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-09-18 10:50:20| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014
Tags: number
discussion
polo
forecast
Sites : [1067] [1068] [1069] [1070] [1071] [1072] [1073] [1074] [1075] [1076] [1077] [1078] [1079] [1080] [1081] [1082] [1083] [1084] [1085] [1086] next »