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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-09-16 16:47:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161447 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 Visible satellite images show that Edouard has an impressive satellite presentation, displaying a well-defined eye within the central dense overcast. Edouard is upgraded to a major hurricane based on a subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of 102 kt from TAFB, an ADT estimate of 107 kt, and a recent SFMR surface wind of 97 kt in the southwest eyewall. Edouard is the first major hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, and the first category 3 or greater hurricane in the basin since Sandy on October 25, 2012. Edouard is expected to reach its peak intensity within the next 12-18 hours while it remains in light shear conditions and over warm waters. A combination of decreasing SSTs and increasing shear should cause the hurricane to start a steady weakening by late tomorrow. The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the latest NHC forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction and the intensity consensus. Edouard is expected to become post-tropical by day 4, but this transition could even occur around day 3 due to rather cool waters in the cyclone's path. The initial motion is gradually shifting to the right, now 345/11. Edouard remains located to the west of the subtropical high and will turn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours. An eastward acceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores. The interaction of the low and the tropical cyclone is causing the model guidance to become more divergent at long range, with the GFS and the GFDL models taking the cyclone well north of the Azores. However, the GFS ensemble is much farther southwest than the deterministic GFS, and is much more consistent with the previous forecast and the bulk of the guidance. Thus, I have elected to leave the NHC prediction virtually unchanged from the previous one, even though the model consensus is a fair distance to the northeast of the new official track at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 31.1N 57.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 33.0N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 35.7N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 38.4N 50.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 40.3N 45.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 41.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 40.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/1200Z 38.0N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-09-16 11:09:08| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-09-16 10:45:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160845 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 Convective cloud tops within Edouard's eyewall have occasionally been as cold as about -75C, but the eye has actually cooled during the past few hours. In addition, an 0614 UTC TRMM pass showed that the hurricane's eyewall is partially open on the north side. The Dvorak final-T estimate from TAFB increased to T5.5/102 kt but decreased to T4.5/77 kt from SAB, while the CIMSS ADT is holding steady near T5.6/105 kt. Due to the discrepancy between the various estimates, the initial intensity is being held at 95 kt. Analyses from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that about 15 kt of southeasterly shear continues to affect Edouard. The shear is expected to decrease between 12-36 hours, and since waters will be warmer than 26C during that period, the hurricane still has a chance to strengthen a bit. The intensity guidance has decreased, with none of the usual hurricane models explicitly showing Edouard reaching major hurricane strength. However, given the improving environment, the NHC intensity forecast still allows for the possibility of a major hurricane in the next 12-24 hours. After that time, Edouard is expected to weaken quickly due to colder water and increasing vertical shear. The forecast continues to show Edouard becoming post-tropical by day 4, but the cyclone may begin to struggle to maintain organized deep convection as early as day 3 while it's over 22C water. The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/11 kt. Edouard is located to the west of a mid-tropospheric high and will turn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours. An eastward acceleration is expected by 48 hours, but then the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores. The track guidance continues to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC forecast has only been nudged slightly westward during the first 48 hours to be closer to the multi-model consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 30.2N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 31.7N 57.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 34.3N 56.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 37.1N 52.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 39.5N 48.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 41.3N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/0600Z 38.5N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-09-16 10:43:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160843 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 Odile continues to have a well-organized appearance on satellite imagery with bursts of deep convection continuing near the center. A couple of ASCAT passes indicated a large area of 45-kt winds over the Gulf of California just off the east-central coast of the Baja peninsula. Based on these data and the possibility of stronger winds along the immediate coast of the Baja peninsula, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. Odile should gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours while the circulation continues to interact with land. Odile is forecast to become a tropical depression in a day or so, and degenerate to a remnant low within 48 hours. The new forecast now calls for dissipation within 3 days. Odile is moving north-northwestward at about 9 kt. The cyclone should turn toward the north, then northeast during the next day or so as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its east and a mid-level trough near southern California. The latest NHC track is again a little faster than the previous advisory and is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation over the next few days. This, along with the slow motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 27.4N 112.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 16/1800Z 28.5N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0600Z 29.4N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...GULF OF CALIFORNIA 36H 17/1800Z 30.4N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 31.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Celadon Group Inc - 10-K - Management's Discussion and Analysis of...
2014-09-16 10:35:53| Trucking - Topix.net
We believe that an improving economy and decreased industry-wide trucking capacity in fiscal 2014 compared to fiscal 2013 were the major factors contributing to the improvement in our operating metrics. Average freight revenue per loaded mile for fiscal 2014, excluding fuel surcharge, increased 2.7% to for fiscal 2013, as an improvement in rates was partially offset by fewer miles per seated tractor.
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