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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 24

2014-09-17 10:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170849 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014 Edouard's presentation on infrared satellite imagery has changed very little during the past 6 hours, and recent microwave images indicate that the hurricane still has two well-defined low-level concentric rings. A dropsonde released into the southeastern eyewall just after 0600 UTC during a NASA Global Hawk mission measured an average wind of 90 kt in the lowest 150 meters, which equates to an intensity of about 75 kt. Edouard's initial intensity is being held at 80 kt under the assumption that the dropsondes did not sample the maximum winds in the eyewall. Two dropsondes within the eye measured surface pressures of 960 and 961 mb with some wind, supporting the previous estimated storm pressure of 959 mb. Edouard is likely to reach water colder than 26C in about 12 hours or so. Just as the hurricane reaches the colder water, vertical shear is expected to increase, and the SHIPS guidance shows westerly shear of 35 kt in about 48 hours. With the environment becoming so hostile, the hurricane is forecast to gradually weaken during the next 24 hours and then more rapidly lose strength after that. The global models continue to show Edouard remaining separate from nearby frontal zones and not benefiting from baroclinic support, so the cyclone is likely to become a decaying post-tropical low by day 3, if not sooner. Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 035/17 kt. The hurricane is becoming partially embedded in faster mid-latitude westerly flow, and it is expected to continue accelerating for the next 24 hours or so. However, the cyclone is forecast to stay south of the polar jet, and by 48 hours it will turn eastward and slow down as it moves around a mid-level ridge axis. Toward the end of the forecast period, the remnant low should turn southward before it reaches the main islands of the Azores. The track guidance remains tightly clustered for the first 48 hours but then shows some divergence during the post-tropical phase, with the ECMWF and HWRF showing the sharpest southward turn. The updated NHC track is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA and not too far from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 35.1N 55.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 37.2N 52.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 39.3N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 40.3N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 40.3N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 40.1N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/0600Z 38.5N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/0600Z 35.5N 32.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 29

2014-09-17 10:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170849 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014 The center of Odile is currently crossing the northern Gulf of California, with satellite imagery and radar data from the Yuma, Arizona, WSR-88D indicating that most of the associated convection is now occurring in the northeastern semicircle. This is likely due to a combination of 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear and land interaction. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, and that remains the initial intensity. Little change in strength is likely before landfall in northwestern Mexico later today. Rapid weakening should occur after landfall, with Odile expected to decay to a remnant low by 36 hours and completely dissipate shortly thereafter. The initial motion is now 015/5. A mid-level ridge extending from southern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn toward the northeast over the next day or so, with the center of Odile expected to move slowly across the northern Gulf of California, northwestern Mexico, and southern Arizona before dissipation. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. A large area of moisture associated with Odile is crossing northwestern Mexico into the southwestern United States. This, along with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.1N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 30.9N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 32.2N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 33.5N 110.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 23

2014-09-17 04:43:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170243 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 A 2145 UTC WindSat 37 GHZ composite image revealed two concentric rings, with both the inner and outer rings containing hurricane force winds as observed by a NOAA P-3 aircraft. Therefore, the 64- kt wind radii have been adjusted outward to 70 n mi over the southeast and southwest quadrants. Additionally, an earlier lower fuselage radar image from the NOAA P-3 indicated that the highest reflectivity DBZ values occurred in these quadrants. The initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is a compromise of the highest SFMR-observed surface wind of 73 kt, a peak flight-level wind of 81 kt, and a blend of Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Gradual weakening is expected through the forecast period as the cyclone quickly moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and within increasing westerly shear. The intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous package and closely resembles the IVCN intensity consensus. Edouard should lose its tropical characteristics and become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or less, due to the aforementioned cooler water and vertical shear. Through the remainder of the forecast, the large-scale models all agree upon Edouard becoming absorbed within an extensive mid-latitude baroclinic zone. The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be northeastward, or 035/15. Edouard will continue to accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward during the next 36 hours within the mid-tropospheric flow on the northwestern and northern side of a mid-Atlantic high pressure area. Afterward, an eastward motion is expected with further acceleration. A rather abrupt reduction in forward speed with a turn toward the east-southeast is expected as Edouard rounds the western periphery of a large baroclinic low situated to the west of the Iberian peninsula. The official NHC forecast is nudged just a bit to the right of the previous forecast track at days 4 and 5, and is close to the TVCA multi-model consensus and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)/National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) project 133 member multi-model ensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 33.5N 56.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 35.7N 54.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 38.4N 49.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 40.2N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 40.5N 40.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 40.0N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/0000Z 38.5N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/0000Z 35.5N 31.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 28

2014-09-17 04:38:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170238 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 Satellite images show that Odile is maintaining its organization for now, although most of the deepest convection is confined to the northeastern quadrant of the circulation. Since the center of circulation appears to be over the waters of the Gulf of California, it is assumed that the winds have not decreased and the intensity estimate remains 45 kt. No significant change in strength is anticipated until the center crosses the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico on Wednesday. After that occurs, weakening should be rapid and the system will likely degenerate into a weak remnant low in 24-36 hours, and lose its identity by 48 hours. The official wind speed forecast is similar to the previous one. Based on geostationary and microwave imagery, the motion continues to be northward or about 360/6 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from southern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn toward the north-northeast over the next day or so. The official track forecast is very similar to that from the previous advisory, and is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCE. Moisture is being advected northward by Odile's circulation, and the moisture associated with Odile or its remnant low will likely be crossing the United States/Mexico border within 24 hours. This, along with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San Felipe, Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf of California. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 29.7N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.4N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 31.5N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 32.8N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 4

2014-09-17 04:37:41| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

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