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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 10

2014-08-24 10:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240841 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Marie continues to rapidly intensify. The eye of the hurricane has become much more distinct in recent satellite images, and very cold cloud tops surround the center. The inner core convective pattern is also quite symmetric, and a large curved band exists well to the south of the center. The initial wind speed estimate is 115 kt, a category 4 hurricane, which is based on a Dvorak classification of T6.0 from SAB. The large scale conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures should favor additional strengthening during the next day or so. However, it should be noted that with major hurricanes like Marie, intensity fluctuations are common due to internal dynamics, or eyewall replacement cycles, that are not easily forecast. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening in a couple of days when there will likely be some decrease in moisture and sea surface temperatures gradually lower. A more rapid weakening is predicted toward the end of the forecast period when Marie is forecast to move over water temperatures lower than 26 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, given the observed strengthening, but shows a similar trend. The intense hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on the southwestern periphery of a deep layer ridge. The track forecast is fairly straight forward. A west-northwest to northwest motion is predicted during the next 5 days as ridging to the north of Marie remains the primary steering mechanism. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to the multi-model consensus. A partial ASCAT pass indicated that the wind field of Marie has expanded significantly, and the wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow. These swells, which are likely to cause dangerous life-threatening surf, are forecast to spread northward along the Baja California coast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 16.1N 109.9W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.3N 113.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.8N 116.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 22.4N 120.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 28.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 46

2014-08-24 10:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 240837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Karina has the classic appearance of a sheared tropical cyclone, with a strong IR brightness temperature gradient on the east side of the storm. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS have continued to decrease and the initial intensity has subsequently been lowered to 60 kt. Karina is turning toward the east and the initial motion is estimated to be 65/6, though the motion is a little more uncertain for this forecast since the low-level center has become obscured. A general eastward motion is still expected for the next 36 to 48 hours hours. After that, the dynamical models have finally come into complete agreement that Karina will turn more toward the south once it begins to interact with, and circumnavigate, the large circulation of Hurricane Marie. Shortly after this interaction begins, Karina will be assimilated or completely strained out by the larger vortex. The official forecast has been shifted south, but still shows fairly slow movement at days 3 and 4 since the model spread remains large. Given the decreasing SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear that dominate the environment around Karina, continued weakening appears to be inevitable. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Karina will become a remnant low within the next 72 hours. No major changes were made to the intensity forecast, which remains near the intensity consensus, IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.9N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 18.0N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 18.0N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 17.9N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown

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Post-Tropical Cyclone LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 25

2014-08-24 04:49:26| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 45

2014-08-24 04:49:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 240249 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 The appearance of Karina in visible and infrared satellite imagery has continued to deteriorate during the past several hours. The hurricane no longer has an eye, and increasing shear is beginning to restrict the upper-level outflow in the northeast quadrant of the circulation. Based on the degraded satellite appearance and a decrease in satellite intensity estimates, the intensity has been lowered to 65 kt. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast. Steady weakening is still expected for the next few days, particularly in light of the fact that Karina recently passed over the 25 deg SST isotherm. The dynamical models are in good agreement that only a low-level circulation will remain in about 72 hours. Karina continues to move toward the northeast at about 7 kt, and this general motion should continue for the next day or two while the cyclone remains embedded within a large area of southwesterly flow to the south of Lowell. After 48 hours, the spread in the track guidance remains large. Most of the dynamical models have converged this cycle on the general solution that Karina will move close enough to the circulation of Marie to be advected southward before being absorbed or sheared. However, the extent and timing of this interaction remains highly uncertain. Since the track guidance has been exceptionally inconsistent from run to run over the last several forecast cycles, the official forecast has been conservatively nudged only slightly toward the southeast at days 3 and 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 17.8N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 18.0N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 18.2N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 18.3N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven

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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 9

2014-08-24 04:48:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240248 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 Marie's cloud pattern has become better organized since the last advisory. Pulsating convection within the cyclone's large central dense overcast has become more symmetric, and late-day visible satellite imagery showed an intermittent proto-eye. Several well-defined bands also wrap well around the circulation of Marie. A 2106 UTC GMI pass revealed a significant increase in the organization of hurricane's inner core since this morning, with a closed low-level ring of convection present then. An AMSU intensity estimate of 86 kt preceded a T5.0/90 kt Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB at 0000 UTC. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, the upper end of these estimates, based on some further increase in organization of the cyclone's satellite presentation since that time. Marie has been traveling on a west-northwestward course or 295/12, with the current motion to the right of that 24 hours ago. Marie should be steered around the southwestern periphery of an expansive mid-level ridge stretching from the eastern United States into the eastern Pacific during the next 24 hours or so. After that, the hurricane will reach the western edge of this ridge and temporary slow down before the direction of motion becomes northwesterly through the remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in very good agreement this cycle, and the forecast track was shifted only slightly to the right of the previous one by virtue of Marie's nearly northwesterly initial motion. While large-scale conditions generally remain quite conducive for additional intensification, there is some disagreement with regard to how much northeasterly vertical shear is currently affecting Marie. The UW-CIMSS analyses indicate no more than 5-10 kt of northeasterly shear while SHIPS model output has consistently indicated around 15 kt. Regardless, the inner core structure of the hurricane and the favorable environmental conditions should allow for Marie's strengthening to major hurricane status, unless its intensification is interrupted by an eyewall replacement. Interestingly, the bulk of the intensity guidance shows little additional intensification except the SHIPS output, possibly in response to the less-than-optimal shear. Even though the shear is forecast to diminish after 72 hours, sea surface temperatures along Marie's path should rapidly decrease and cause a rapid spin-down of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast remains above all of the intensity guidance through day 3 except the SHIPS model output but approaches the multi-model consensus IVCN after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 15.7N 108.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 16.2N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 17.7N 113.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 18.8N 115.6W 115 KT 135 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 21.4N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 24.0N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 26.7N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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