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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 39

2014-08-22 16:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 221437 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Karina has been improving during the past 6 hours, and a banding eye feature is becoming apparent in the most recent images. An ADT objective intensity estimate and a Dvorak classification from TAFB support an intensity of 55 kt. However, based on the forming banding eye feature and an emerging small warm spot visible in the infrared BD-curve enhancement, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. The official intensity forecast follows the IVCN intensity model blend, with little change in intensity expected through the next couple of days. Beyond 48 hours, a weakening trend should commence primarily due to the cyclone traversing cooler water and the intrusion of a stable and dry air mass from the northwest. The current motion is estimated to be 055/3, or northeastward, within the mid-tropospheric flow produced by the larger tropical storm Lowell to the north. The deterministic models indicate that Lowell will continue to influence Karina to move in a northeastward to east-northeastward fashion through day 3. At days 4 and 5, a weakening Lowell is expected to pass to the north and northwest of Karina while a mid-level ridge builds in behind Lowell from the southwestern U.S. The westward building ridge is expected to turn Karina toward the northwest and eventually toward the west by the end of the period. This scenario and the official forecast is based on the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF consensus), and is close to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.0N 135.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 16.6N 134.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 17.8N 131.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 19.0N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 20.7N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 22.3N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 3

2014-08-22 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221432 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Marie continues to become better organized, with abundant deep convection and banding features in all quadrants. Additionally, water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level outflow is becoming increasingly well defined. The current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak estimates from UW/CIMSS. Since the tropical cyclone will be moving through an environment of low shear and very warm waters for the next several days, continued strengthening seems inevitable. Marie should become a hurricane within 24 hours and will likely attain at least Category 3 status during the forecast period. This is suggested even by the global models such as the GFS, which predicts that Marie will deepen below 950 mb in a few days. The official wind speed forecast, which could be conservative, is based on a blend of the objective intensity guidance. The storm is moving west-northwestward or 290/15 kt. The steering/track forecast scenario appears to be straightforward at this time. Over the next several days, Marie should move along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge that will be building westward from northern Mexico. The dynamical track forecast models are tightly clustered, and the official forecast is very close to the model consensus. This is essentially an update of the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.1N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 38

2014-08-22 10:59:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220859 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Karina's convective structure has changed little during the past few hours. An 0613 UTC ASCAT-B pass just clipped the western portion of the cyclone's circulation and showed some reliable 50-kt barbs. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. A 12-hour motion estimate yields 085/4 kt, although satellite animation seems to suggest that the cyclone is beginning to be pulled northeastward. Karina's movement will be at the mercy of Tropical Storms Lowell and Marie through the entire forecast period. For the first 3-4 days, Karina is forecast to move generally northeastward on the southern side of Lowell. The big difference from previous model cycles is that the guidance no longer shows Karina being absorbed by Lowell. Instead, Karina slows down when it begins to feel the circulation of Marie. The track guidance has slowed down and shifted significantly to the west by days 4 and 5, and the updated NHC track forecast has been pulled southward at those times, but it is still on the northern edge of the guidance envelope. Karina's updated track keeps it over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for another 48 hours or so. Vertical shear may increase a little, but overall little change in intensity is forecast during the next day or two. Weakening should commence by 48 hours when Karina moves over cooler water and into a drier air mass. However, since the forecast track has been pulled southward, Karina may not weaken quite as fast as previously thought, and the updated NHC forecast keeps Karina as a tropical cyclone through day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.8N 135.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 16.2N 134.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 22.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 18

2014-08-22 10:34:13| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 2

2014-08-22 10:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220834 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 ASCAT passes at 0338 UTC and 0430 UTC indicated that the cyclone was producing winds of 35 kt in a small area to the north of the center. Since that time, the convective pattern has become significantly better organized, and it is estimated that the system is now a 40-kt tropical storm. Earlier microwave data indicated that Marie has a well-defined low-level ring, which can often be a precursor to rapid intensification if environmental conditions are favorable. With waters near 30 degrees Celsius, high levels of atmospheric moisture, and favorable upper-level diffluence, it appears that RI is a definite possibility, and Marie could become a hurricane in about 24 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for strengthening for much of the forecast period, and in fact, the global models indicate significant deepening of the cyclone through about day 4 before Marie reaches cooler waters. The statistical-dynamical models are also incredibly aggressive, with the SHIPS model making Marie a category 4 hurricane in 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is roughly between the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are the highest of the guidance. This is higher than the previous forecast, and it now explicitly shows Marie becoming a major hurricane later in the forecast period. Marie's initial motion is 290/16 kt. A mid-level high is centered near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast with a ridge extending westward into northern Mexico. The ridge is expected to build westward over the Pacific waters during the next few days, and this pattern should keep Marie on a west-northwestward motion for much of the forecast period. The model guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast was only shifted slightly westward on this advisory to follow the overall model trend. It should be noted that the global models show Marie becoming a large cyclone in a few days. The forecast wind radii have been expanded, but additional increases may be required in future advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 12.8N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 13.2N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 14.0N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 15.4N 108.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 21.5N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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