je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-08-23 04:51:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230251 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Marie appears to be on the verge of intensifying rapidly. The cyclone is in the process of developing a central dense overcast, consisting of very cold-topped convection. Numerous outer bands are also present. The upper-level outflow over the storm is well established, suggesting an expanding warm core. Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, with UW-CIMSS ADT values around 4.0. A blend of these data are used to set the initial intensity to 60 kt. Marie continues on a steady west-northwestward course, with the initial motion estimated to be 285/13. A continued west- northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through 48 hours while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge extending west-southwestward from the eastern United States into the eastern Pacific. A bend in the track toward the northwest is anticipated after 72 hours as Marie reaches the western end of the aforementioned ridge. The track guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario, and the track forecast is little changed from the previous one despite a slight shift in the guidance to the north this cycle. The stage is set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the next day or two, with global models forecasting a nearly ideal environment for strengthening. The SHIPS model output bolsters this idea, indicating a 54 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. The official forecast is at or above the upper end of the intensity guidance through 72 hours. Given the very favorable large-scale conditions, it is possible that the intensity forecast may not be strong enough in the short term. Then again, it cannot be ruled out that unpredictable internal dynamics such as eyewall replacement cycles could prevent Marie from realizing its full potential. By days 4 and 5, the passage of Marie over sharply lower sea surface temperatures should hasten weakening, even though the shear should be relatively low. The intensity forecast late in the period remains above the nearly all the guidance but is closest to SHIPS model output. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.7N 104.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.2N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.9N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.5N 110.1W 115 KT 135 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 18.4N 115.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 20.8N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 23.2N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
marie
storm
Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 41
2014-08-23 04:50:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 230250 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Karina has completed a loop and at 0000 UTC, it was centered at nearly the same location as it was 3 days ago at the same time. Its appearance on satellite has improved during the evening and a small eye-like feature can be seen in visible imagery. A corresponding warm spot in IR imagery has also been intermittently present. A blend of Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 70 kt. The UW-CIMSS ADT, CIRA SATCON product, and a 2255 AMSU pass all support intensities of at least 70 kt. The recent intensification trend is expected to be short-lived since the cyclone is tracking toward cooler waters. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that the environment for the next 48 hours will otherwise be not particularly hostile, so only slow weakening is forecast. After that, stronger shear and a drier environment should speed up the weakening process, and Karina is expected to become a remnant low by 96 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be 045/6. There is very little change to the forecast for the first 48 hours, and Karina is still expected to move toward the northeast or east-northeast while interacting with the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell. After Lowell passes in about 3 days, Karina is expected to turn more toward the north. There is considerably more uncertainty in the forecast beyond 72 hours. Some models forecast that Karina will turn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge builds east of Lowell. Others forecast that Karina, or its remnants, will move close enough to the circulation of Marie to initiate a second Fujiwhara-like interaction, resulting in a more southerly motion. The official forecast still shows a westward track, but has been slowed down and is now closer to splitting these two scenarios. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 134.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 16.8N 134.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 17.6N 132.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 18.2N 131.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 18.7N 129.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 20.0N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 20.7N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-08-23 04:46:21| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 40
2014-08-22 22:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 222035 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 A symmetric convective ring or eye feature noted in a 1659 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass and a cloud-filled eye in visible images indicate that Karina has regained hurricane status. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65kt from both TAFB and SAB are the basis for raising the initial intensity to 65 kt. Karina is expected to maintain hurricane strength during the next 12 hours or so before the cyclone moves over sub-26C sea surface temperatures and into a less conducive thermodynamic environment. Weakening is expected to continue through the remainder of the forecast period and Karina is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The new NHC forecast is a little below the latest IVCN consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be 050/5, or northeastward, within the mid-tropospheric flow of large Tropical Storm Lowell located to the north. There is little change in the forecast track from the previous advisory. Karina is expected to move northeastward to east-northeastward during the next 48 hours under the influence of Lowell's large circulation. Through the remaining portion of the forecast period, Karina should turn toward the northwest and ultimately toward the west as a mid-level ridge builds in behind Lowell from the southwestern U.S. The NHC official forecast is basically an update from the previous package and is close to the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF consensus) and the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 15.5N 135.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.2N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 21.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-08-22 22:32:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222032 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Marie continues to intensify. Satellite images show a well- organized cloud pattern, with considerable deep convection and numerous rain bands surrounding the center. The current intensity estimate is set at 50 kt, which is based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, ADT values from UW/CIMSS, and data from a couple of recent ASCAT overpasses. The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters of almost 30 deg C and vertical shear is forecast to remain low throughout the period. Some of the intensity guidance is very aggressive in strengthening Marie. In particular the SHIPS model, which shows strengthening to Category 4 status in 48 hours, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index, which shows a 59 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in winds over the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance through 48 hours, and is a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS models thereafter. Marie continues its west-northwestward trek and the motion estimate is 285/12, which is close to the climatological mean for the basin. The track forecast and forecast reasoning are basically unchanged. Marie should move along the southern periphery of a mid- tropospheric ridge that is forecast to build westward from northern Mexico through the forecast period. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close to the model consensus. The forecast wind radii at days 2-3 have been increased, based on the global models, which depict a large hurricane by that time frame. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 13.4N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.8N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.9N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.8N 110.7W 115 KT 135 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 17.5N 114.0W 115 KT 135 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 20.0N 118.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
marie
storm
Sites : [1102] [1103] [1104] [1105] [1106] [1107] [1108] [1109] [1110] [1111] [1112] [1113] [1114] [1115] [1116] [1117] [1118] [1119] [1120] [1121] next »