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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 23
2014-08-23 16:37:52| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014
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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 43
2014-08-23 16:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 231437 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 The compact hurricane is maintaining its strength this morning. The eye of Karina has become a little more distinct during the past few hours and cloud tops remain quite cold to the south of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 70 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from UW-CIMSS. The hurricane will soon cross the 26 C isotherm, and total precipitable water imagery shows some dry air beginning to wrap around the circulation. These environmental conditions combined with some increase in shear should cause the weakening process to begin later today or tonight. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies fairly close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN. Karina is moving northeastward at about 6 kt in the broad southwesterly flow to the south of much larger but weaker Tropical Storm Lowell. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today and that general motion should continue for the the next couple of days. Beyond that time, however, the models have differing solutions. The previous discussion outlined the varying scenarios of what could drive Karina northward and northwestward as it interacts with what is left of Lowell, and the possibility that Karina stalls or is driven further eastward due to its interaction with Hurricane Marie. The models are trending toward the latter scenario, and the NHC official track forecast shows a slower forward speed at days 3-5 to account for that information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 17.2N 134.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 17.6N 133.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 18.2N 131.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 18.7N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 19.0N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 20.3N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.8N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 42
2014-08-23 10:46:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 230846 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 Karina continues to show signs of an intermittent eye in shortwave and longwave IR imagery. Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS are unchanged since the last advisory, and several recent AMSU passes have indicated an intensity of 70 to 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. No significant change to the intensity forecast was made. Karina continues to march steadily toward cooler SSTs and a subsequently more stable thermodynamic environment. After 36 hours, the cyclone should encounter an increasingly dry mid-level environment and higher shear, resulting in an increased rate of weakening. Most of the dynamical models forecast that the low- and mid-level centers will become decoupled within 96 hours, but that the low-level center will persist for a day or two after that. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at about 7 kt. There remains a high degree of confidence for the first 48 hours of the track forecast. A general east-northeastward track is still expected while Karina interacts with the circulation of Lowell. After Lowell passes to the north, there is a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the track of Karina and its remnants. Not only is the model spread very large, but the run-to-run consistency has been remarkably poor. For instance, the 00Z and 18Z GFS 120-h forecast positions differ by over 700 nm. The members of TVCE currently support three very distinct scenarios. The GFS shows Karina wrapping around to the north side of Lowell and moving rapidly westward. The HWRF and GFDL models show a slower westward motion, caused by a mid-level ridge that is forecast to build to the east of Lowell. Finally, the ECMWF and UKMET forecast that Karina will be advected southward by the circulation of Marie. The official forecast has been shifted slightly northward, in part due to the extreme shift of the GFS, but remains closest to the middle ground solution of the HWRF and GFDL. If the models begin to converge on a single solution, it may necessitate a larger change to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 16.7N 134.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 17.4N 133.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 18.0N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 19.2N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 20.6N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 21.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown
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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-08-23 10:38:50| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-08-23 10:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230838 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 Marie continues to quickly strengthen. Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a few microwave passes show significant improvement of the inner core and outer rain band features. Embedded center cloud tops continue to cool and are now around -82 degrees C. The initial intensity is raised to 65 kt and is based on a compromise of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an objective ADT current intensity of 72 kt. The water is warm and the shear is low, and this ripe environment is expected to remain conducive for further significant strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS continues to show Marie intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48 hours and the SHIPS RI Index indicates that the chance of a 35 kt increase in winds during the next 24 hours is 4 times the sample mean. The intensity forecast follows the SHIPS through day 3, then sides with the IVCN consensus model as the cyclone traverses sub-26C sea surface temperatures. Marie continues toward the west-northwest and the initial motion is estimated to be 285/11, similar to the climatological mean for the eastern Pacific basin. Marie is forecast to move along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over the extreme eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. The official NHC forecast is close to the previous package and is hedged toward the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.0N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W 115 KT 135 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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