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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2014-08-22 04:55:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220255 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery, along with scatterometer surface wind data, indicate that the large low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, has become better organized during the past several hours. Curved bands of deep convection have developed near the well-defined center, and the system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, which is supported by winds of 31 kt and 30 kt noted in two earlier ASCAT overpasses. Upper-level outflow is good in all quadrants and has been expanding. The initial motion estimate of 295/12 kt is based on microwave fix positions over the past 9 hours. The NHC model guidance is tightly clustered and in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving west-northwestward and remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico throughout the forecast period. This is due to a strong subtropical ridge anchored over the southern U.S. and northern Mexico. The NHC track forecast closely follows the consensus model TVCE. The cyclone is expected to remain in very favorable thermodynamic and oceanic environments that will be conducive for development. The official intensity forecast is fairly robust, but not nearly as aggressive as the SHIPS model, which brings the system to category 4 strength in 96 hours. The NHC forecast more closely follows the intensity consensus model ICON, making the cyclone a hurricane in 48 hours and brings it to near major hurricane status by Day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 12.4N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 17

2014-08-22 04:46:42| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 37

2014-08-22 04:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220236 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 Deep convection has continued to develop near the center of Karina, especially in the southern semicircle, and the low-level center is embedded in the middle of the more circular cloud shield. Two earlier ASCAT passes showed 50 kt and 52 kt peak surface winds to the southeast of the center, so the intensity has been bumped up to 55 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 090/02 kt based on microwave satellite positions over the past several hours. After nearly three days of saying the same thing in our discussions, there isn't much more to add. Karina will gradually get pulled eastward and northeastward by the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell, as the latter cyclone passes to the northeast of Karina in 2-3 days. The majority of the NHC track guidance is now indicating a considerably slower forward speed on Days 4 and 5 as Karina weakens over cold water and becomes more vertically shallow. The official advisory track is similar to but a little faster than the consensus model TVCE out of respect for the faster GFS model. Recent microwave images continue to show a partial eyewall structure. The vertical shear is forecast to subside to around 5 kt during the next 12 hours, so there is a brief window of opportunity for Karina to strengthen. However, the vertical shear is forecast to increase again at 24 hours and beyond as the cyclone begins to move over cooler water. This combination of unfavorable conditions should induce gradual weakening, with the Karina becoming a non-convective remnant low pressure by 96 hours when the cyclone is moving over 22-23C sea-surface temperatures and into a much cooler and drier airmass. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus model ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 14.8N 136.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 15.1N 135.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 15.7N 135.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 16

2014-08-21 22:40:10| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 36

2014-08-21 22:37:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 212037 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 Karina has a fairly well-organized appearance on visible satellite imagery, and microwave images show that a partial eyewall structure is being maintained. Based on these factors, the initial intensity is maintained at 50 kt for this advisory. This is somewhat above the most recent Dvorak estimates. The storm should more or less maintain its intensity for the next 24 hours or so. Dry mid-level air near the cyclone is expected to cause a weakening trend to begin tomorrow and, later in the forecast period, cooler waters should also result in weakening. Karina is expected to degenerate into a remnant low after 72 hours. The official wind speed forecast is in reasonable agreement with the intensity model consensus. The center is easy to track in visible imagery and the motion estimate is 160/3. The steering of Karina is likely to be dominated by the larger circulation of Hurricane Lowell, which should be passing to the northeast of Karina in a few days. The flow over the southern and southeastern portions of Lowell's circulation should draw Karina northeastward and, eventually, northward during the forecast period. The official track forecast is similar to the latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 14.7N 136.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 14.7N 136.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.7N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 18.5N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 22.0N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z 26.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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