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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-07-22 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220832 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 There has been little change in the appearance of the depression in overnight infrared satellite imagery. The cyclone continues to produce a small area of convection that is organized into a band over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is supported by a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 2.0. As previous advisories have noted, the environment ahead of the depression does not favor strengthening. Dry air and an increase in shear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two, and all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The NHC forecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to 3 days. The center of the depression has been difficult to locate overnight, but it appears to still be moving westward or 280 degrees at 14 kt. The depression or its remnants are forecast to continue moving westward to west-northwestward to the south of a strong deep-layer ridge during the next few days. The track guidance is tightly clustered, but has shifted southward this cycle. As a result, the new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 12.2N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 13.0N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 13.5N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-07-22 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220242 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014 The compact depression has not changed much during the past several hours. The system is producing a small area of deep convection near the center and a few fragmented bands mainly on the south side of the circulation. An ASCAT pass around 0010 UTC captured the western half of the system and indicated that winds are light and variable to the south of the center, suggesting that the system has not become better defined. The dynamical models, both regional and global, are in good agreement in showing the system weakening into a trough by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The primary reasons for the weakening in these models appear to be dry air and possibly mid-level shear. The SHIPS and LGEM models show the cyclone gaining strength, but this scenario seems unlikely given the expected unfavorable environmental conditions. The official intensity forecast follows the trend in the dynamical model guidance, and is the same as the previous forecast. Satellite fixes suggest that depression has moved a little to the north of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate is 280/14. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep it moving westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. This track takes the depression, or its remnants, over the Lesser Antilles in 2 to 3 days. The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for the initial position, and lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 12.0N 45.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 12.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 13.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 13.5N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 16.7N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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depression
Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-07-21 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212034 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014 The area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic has shown an increase in convective organization today. Despite the fact that the convection remains somewhat shallow, it has enough coverage and organization to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT pass around 1210 UTC was not conclusive in regards to whether the surface circulation was closed, but given the persistence of the convection, we are assuming that the circulation is closed and are initiating advisories at this time. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on data from the ASCAT pass. The environment is marginal, at best, for development during the next couple of days, as the depression will be moving over marginal SSTs and into a region characterized by dry air and subsidence as it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Most of the global model guidance and the HWRF shows the system weakening and dissipating by 48 to 72 hours. The official forecast follows suit, but the cyclone could dissipate sooner than shown here. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity forecasts seem much too high in this scenario, and are not given much weight in the official forecast. The initial motion is quickly toward the west or 280/14 knots. The cyclone will be steered by the Atlantic subtropical ridge during its life span, and should remain on a westward to west-northwestward heading with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the HWRF and the GEFS ensemble mean. Note that the global models are having a difficult time tracking the small vortex, and confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than usual. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 11.6N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 11.9N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 12.3N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 12.8N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 13.4N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 15.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Privatizing Waste Collection - A Panel Discussion
2014-07-14 17:01:00| Waste Age
As local governments grapple with diminishing revenue streams and expanding expenses, they are looking to outsource a wide variety of activities. read more
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collection
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waste
Conversion Technologies: A Technical Discussion of Possibilities
2014-07-11 20:51:00| Waste Age
In this technical session, experts will explore the science and engineering of conversion technologies including how they work, environmental issues, siting concerns, and the possibilities of large scale commercial feasibility. read more
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technologies
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