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School Specialty Inc - 10-K - Management's Discussion and Analysis of ...

2014-07-10 08:24:29| Furniture - Topix.net

You should read the following discussion and analysis in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and related notes, included elsewhere in this Annual Report.

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Remnants of FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 8

2014-07-09 16:45:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091445 TCDEP1 REMNANTS OF FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 800 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014 Satellite imagery, overnight scatterometer data, and a recent GPM microwave overpass indicate that Fausto has degenerated to a trough of low pressure. The remnants of the cyclone are expected to continue a general west-northwestward motion for the next several days through an area of increasing vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air. This combination is likely to prevent regeneration. This is the last advisory issued on Fausto by the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnants, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 11.7N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion forecast remnants

Tropical Depression FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 7

2014-07-09 10:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090840 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 200 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014 Fausto has continued to lose organization overnight. The deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has become disorganized and appears to be separated from the center that was tracked in the last few visible satellite images. Recent ASCAT data suggest that the circulation has become elongated from northeast to southwest and that it has possibly become an open trough of low pressure. The highest believable winds from the ASCAT passes were 25 to 30 kt to the northeast of the alleged center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt. Despite being located in a low shear environment and over warm water, Fausto has likely weakened during the past 24 hours due to the entrainment of dry mid-level air. Although Fausto is forecast to remain over warm water and in low shear for another 24 hours, poor thermodynamic factors should prevent restrengthening. After that time, westerly shear is forecast to increase which should cause the final demise of Fausto, if it does not occur sooner. One very possible scenario is for the circulation to dissipate and become an open trough within the next 24 hours. This solution is generally favored by the GFS and ECMWF models. The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 285 degrees at 16 kt. Fausto should continue moving west-northwestward to westward during the next several days to the south of a strong low- to mid-level ridge. The track guidance agrees on this scenario but has shifted southward this cycle. Since the updated NHC intensity forecast predicts a weaker and shallower system, it is more likely that Fausto or its remnants will move more westward. As a result, the NHC track has been adjusted southward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 11.4N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 11.9N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 12.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 13.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 13.5N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 14.5N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 6

2014-07-09 04:44:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090244 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 Visible satellite imagery indicates that the center of Fausto has pulled northwestward away from the main convective cloud mass and is now fully exposed in the middle of the larger scale cyclonic gyre. The initial intensity has been decreased to 35 kt based on satellite current intensity estimates of 35 kt and 39 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT, respectively. The initial motion is 290/16 kt, which is a 12-hour average motion. A recent northwestward jog in the track is believed to be a temporary motion, and Fausto is expected to turn back toward the west-northwest fairly soon. A strong ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to keep Fausto moving west-northwestward for the for the next 72 hours. After that, the cyclone is expected to weaken and become vertically shallow, being steered more westward by the brisk low-level trade wind flow. The official forecast track is a little to the right of and faster than the previous advisory, mainly due to the more northward initial position, and is similar to the consensus model TCVE. Fausto is experiencing light deep-layer vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt and the mid-level shear is only around 5 kt, so the sudden development of an exposed low-level circulation is perplexing. However, various water vapor products and microwave satellite imagery suggest that dry mid-level air has intruded into the inner core, disrupting the deep convection and allowing the low-level vortex to briefly decouple from the mid- and upper-level circulations. Further exacerbating these unfavorable conditions is a large disturbance located about 800 nmi to the northeast of the cyclone, which has been deflecting some of the southerly low-level inflow away from Fausto and into that system. The global models indicate that the shear will remain light for another 24 hours or so, and that Fausto and the aforementioned disturbance will begin to separate from each other in about 12 hours or so, which could allow for some slight re-strengthening. By 72 hours and beyond, however, northwesterly wind shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt, inducing significant weakening while the cyclone also moves over cooler water. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous advisory forecast, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 11.0N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 11.7N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 12.5N 131.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 13.4N 134.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 14.2N 137.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 16.0N 142.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 17.4N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 18.4N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 5

2014-07-08 22:45:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082045 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 The cloud pattern of Fausto has changed little during the past several hours, with the low-level center located near the northern edge of the main convective mass. A recent ASCAT overpass shows that the circulation is poorly defined on the western side, and there are no tropical-storm-force winds except in the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt since the ASCAT did not fully sample the southeastern quadrant. The initial motion is now 280/13. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Fausto should continue to result in a generally west-northwestward track for the next day or two. By days 2-4, a weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 140-145 degrees west longitude should cause some deceleration and a slight turn to the right. By the end of the forecast period, it is expected that a weakening Fausto will be turning more westward in the lower-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast is just a little to the left of and slightly faster than the previous forecast, and it lies in the middle of the track guidance envelope. Fausto should be over warm sea surface temperatures and in an area of light vertical wind shear for about 48 hours. While these conditions are favorable, microwave satellite data and water vapor imagery show significant dry air near the cyclone. This, combined with the current structure, suggests that strengthening should be slow at best. After 48 hours, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause Fausto to weaken. The new intensity forecast calls for a slower strengthening and a quicker weakening than the previous forecast, which is in best agreement with the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 10.0N 124.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 10.5N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 11.4N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 12.2N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 13.3N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 15.0N 140.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 16.5N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 17.0N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

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