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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

2013-11-02 09:37:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020837 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION NEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER AND A CIRCULATION THAT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE IS STRETCHED NORTH TO SOUTH. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS MISSED THE WESTERN AND STRONGER SEMICIRCLE...AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN BELOW STORM STRENGTH...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 0441Z SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED PERHAPS ABOUT 50 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE MORE SOUTHERN MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WHICH YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/4. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO WILL NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THAT A LARGE APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE AND RECURVE THE SYSTEM AFTER THAT. THE GUIDANCE IS FASTER ON THIS CYCLE...THE GFS PARTICULARLY SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EVEN WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE TVCE CONSENSUS...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE NEW ECMWF. DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HINDERED BY EASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND... POSSIBLY...THE SPRAWLING AND RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN BRIEFLY AS IT SWITCHES FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN 24-36 HOURS...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...ONLY THE HWRF MAKES THE SYSTEM A STORM AND THEN ONLY BARELY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING ON THE APPROACH TO BAJA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE CENTER LOSING DEFINITION BEFORE LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENEROUSLY INCLUDES A 72-HR FORECAST POINT TO ALLOW THE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST...BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL EXIST IN THREE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.2N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.7N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 18.8N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.6N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 23.1N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 27.5N 105.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-11-02 03:39:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020239 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 800 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CYCLONE STILL HAS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE CENTER IS ELONGATED WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS EVIDENT IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. A RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THAT MOTION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 25N 125W MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ABOUT 2 DAYS AND OVER WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. EASTERLY SHEAR OF 15-20 KT IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE POOR STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 28C...AND THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL...AND IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.9N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.2N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.9N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 19.1N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 21.0N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 26.1N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 
 

Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2013-11-01 15:45:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011445 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 800 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION. EVEN WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES...THE CENTER IS HARD TO FIND...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE MULTIPLE SWIRLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY 30 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS SOME CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEPRESSION WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER DURING THAT TIME...MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS. GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION AND THE POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE...THE WEAKER IDEA SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 24H...AND IS BASICALLY THE SAME THEREAFTER...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER 48H DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY NOT LAST LONG AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MAKING A LEFTWARD TURN...AND IS NOW MOVING ROUGHLY 345/6. RIDGING SHOULD TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A LARGE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD INDUCE A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST DURING THE FIRST 48H TO BETTER FIT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.9N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 17.4N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.8N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.4N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 19.6N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 23.0N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 27.0N 105.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2013-11-01 09:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010836 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 200 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED AND BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...AN ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET TO 30 KT. THERE IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BUT OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED TO THE EAST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS ONLY MAKING THE CYCLONE A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS OR SO...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE BEGUN WEAKENING BY THAT TIME. BASED ON A BLEND OF FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/6. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.4N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.3N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.8N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.2N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 24.5N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Apple censors Lawrence Lessig's discussion of iOS 7 Wi-Fi problems

2013-10-31 12:44:42| InfoWorld: Top News

Just when you thought Apple couldn't get more censorious or heavy-handed, it surprises you and takes things to a whole new level.

Tags: problems discussion apple lawrence

 

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