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Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-10-22 22:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 222035 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 THE EARLIER TREND OF ORGANIZATION ENDED LATE THIS MORNING...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LORENZO SINCE THAT TIME. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD REACH LORENZO WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LORENZO SHEARING APART IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A BIT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORENZO IS LIKELY MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST OR 085/08. HOWEVER...CIRRUS CLOUD DEBRIS HAS BEEN OBSCURING THE CENTER SINCE THIS MORNING...MAKING THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE RATIONALE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. LORENZO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK SHOULD BEND NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS HAIR TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND NEAR BUT RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 29.4N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 29.5N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 29.8N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 30.5N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 31.7N 46.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Commissioner Nick Fish hopes for 'spirited discussion' at event commemorating commission
2013-10-22 21:13:29| PortlandOnline
Andrew Theen in The Oregonian, october 22, 2013
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Hurricane RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-10-22 16:41:33| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
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Hurricane RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-10-22 10:33:33| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
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Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-10-22 10:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220833 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS DEEP CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 35 KT. LORENZO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION BECOMING HIGHLY TILTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF LORENZO SHOULD AID IN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THIS OCCURRING SOONER. LORENZO IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/7. AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE STORM MOVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 29.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 29.7N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 29.9N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 30.2N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 30.8N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 32.8N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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