Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 8

2013-10-23 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230832 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013 A TRMM PASS FROM 0247Z NICELY SHOWED THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE THE SHEAR...LORENZO IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0...45 KT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 00Z MISSED THE CENTER BUT DID INDICATE THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS DO NOT EXTEND VERY FAR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE SHARPLY DECREASING... HOWEVER BY THAT POINT LORENZO SHOULD BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. CONSEQUENTLY...A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. LORENZO SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...AND WITH ANY LUCK...SOONER THAN THAT. THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING IS UNCHANGED. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE DEEP CONVECTION SEPARATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINLY BLENDS THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 29.6N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 30.0N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 30.6N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 31.6N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 32.7N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Hurricane RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 14

2013-10-23 10:32:09| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013

Tags: number discussion raymond forecast

 
 

Hurricane RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 13

2013-10-23 04:44:36| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013

Tags: number discussion raymond forecast

 

Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 7

2013-10-23 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230239 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR LORENZO HAS TURNED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASED TO NEARLY 25 KT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THERE HAVE BEEN NO ASCAT PASSES OVER LORENZO SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER TO AROUND 40 KT OUT OF THE NORTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND WEAKENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO BEGIN VERY SOON. THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IT STILL SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS. LORENZO IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF FAST MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...WHICH ARE STEERING THE CYCLONE EASTWARD AT 085/8 KT. WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE ON STEERING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW...AND LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING A FASTER MOTION COMPARED TO THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HEDGES TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL SCENARIOS AND IS THEREFORE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA...ESPECIALLY AT 36 AND 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 29.6N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 29.8N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 30.3N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 31.4N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 32.6N 45.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Hurricane RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 12

2013-10-22 22:40:07| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013

Tags: number discussion raymond forecast

 

Sites : [1181] [1182] [1183] [1184] [1185] [1186] [1187] [1188] [1189] [1190] [1191] [1192] [1193] [1194] [1195] [1196] [1197] [1198] [1199] [1200] next »