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Hurricane RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 9

2013-10-22 04:34:09| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

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Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 3

2013-10-22 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220232 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013 ALTHOUGH LORENZO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AS A RESULT OF 15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND T2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND TWO RECENT ASCAT PASSES WHICH SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AFFECTING LORENZO SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT BY 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE TO INFILTRATE THE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STEADY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN DECREASE THEREAFTER. THE SHEAR...COLDER WATER...AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. IF THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...LORENZO COULD DISSIPATE ABOUT A DAY EARLIER THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT LORENZO HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 055/8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BUT JUST OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST STEERING FLOW. THEREFORE...LORENZO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN A CONSTANT SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE JUST BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 29.3N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 29.7N 52.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 29.9N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 30.2N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 30.7N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 32.5N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Forecast Discussion Number 1

2013-10-21 16:37:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211437 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LONG CURVED BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SUPPORTS INITIATING ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM. A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 FROM TAFB IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/07. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID- LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR 27N 47W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG 30N AND TURN EAST-NORTHWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR BUT JUST AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP THE WESTERLY SHEAR LOW ENOUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS LIKELY TO CAUSE A DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 28.0N 55.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 28.9N 54.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 29.6N 52.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 30.1N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 30.4N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 31.4N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Hurricane RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 7

2013-10-21 16:34:57| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

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Hurricane RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 6

2013-10-21 10:45:57| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

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