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Tropical Storm RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 21
2013-10-25 04:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2013 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250233 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2013 RAYMOND HAS MADE A COMEBACK TONIGHT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...HAVE DONE A REMARKABLY GOOD JOB IN FORECASTING THE CHANGE FROM UNFAVORABLE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. NOW THAT THIS FAVORABLE PATTERN HAS MATERIALIZED...AS SEEN BY A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN IN A DAY OR SO OVER OPEN WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND WITH THE UPWARD INTENSITY TREND SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TONIGHT. THE HWRF APPEARS TO BE ALONE IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE...KEEPING RAYMOND ON A GRADUAL STEADY DECAY OR WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER WATERS...WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND IS FORCING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL KEEP RAYMOND ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO. BY DAY 4 AND BEYOND...THE SAME APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL INDUCE THE SHEAR WILL ALSO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WESTWARD MOTION TROUGH DAY 3 OR SO...BUT AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING THE CYCLONE MEANDERING...AND OTHERS MOVING IT NORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER. THE FIRST SOLUTION IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR SINCE BY THAT TIME...RAYMOND SHOULD BE WEAKER AND STEERED BY A MUCH LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 14.6N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 14.5N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 14.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 13.7N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 13.5N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-10-24 22:43:48| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2013
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Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-10-24 16:50:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 241450 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013 DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON LORENZO. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT HAD ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS AND HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...LORENZO HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...DRY AIR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION AS IT REMAINS WITHIN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 30.2N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/0000Z 31.0N 46.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1200Z 32.0N 45.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 33.0N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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lorenzo
Tropical Storm RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-10-24 16:48:49| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2013
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tropical
Australia: Informed discussion on climate change impacts can turn table on denialist prime minister
2013-10-24 12:02:00| Climate Ark Climate Change & Global Warming Newsfeed
Alex White: The Australian government is fast turning into an international embarrassment on climate change. The environment minister Greg Hunt revealed that he looked Australia's history of bushfires on Wikipedia and concluded that there was no link between the latest outbreaks and climate change. (More on Hunt's risible Wikipedia searches at The Guardian here.) Meanwhile, climate denying prime minister Tony Abbott has been criticised by Nobel laureate and former US vice president Al Gore over Mr Abbott's...
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