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Tropical Storm RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 18

2013-10-24 10:43:48| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2013

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Tropical Depression LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 12

2013-10-24 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240836 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013 LORENZO IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THE DEPRESSION WAS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION LATE IN THE EVENING YESTERDAY...BUT A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT LORENZO...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTION FROM ORGANIZING. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...DRY AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO LOSE STRENGTH. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE DEPRESSION IS TURNING TO THE LEFT...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/4. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 29.8N 47.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 30.4N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 31.4N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1800Z 32.5N 44.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 11

2013-10-24 04:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240238 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 LORENZO IS ALMOST DONE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS BEING BLASTED BY 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY VANISHED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB... AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT...LORENZO IS NOW DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF LORENZO SLIDES EAST AND BECOMES COLLOCATED WITH THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER... COLDER WATERS AND DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT RESTRENGTHENING. ASSUMING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...LORENZO WOULD LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY. THE LOW SHOULD THEN DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORENZO HAS BEGUN TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/4 KT. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED NORTH OF LORENZO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT VERY SOON. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEREFORE TURN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THAT HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 29.5N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 30.1N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 31.0N 46.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1200Z 32.0N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 16

2013-10-23 22:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 232034 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL...AND THE WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE...WITH A LARGE ARC CLOUD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDING EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE CENTER. WHILE THE SHEAR SHOULD ABATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME OF THAT DRIER AIR WILL SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING IN THE LONG- TERM...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE CONFIDENT 250/8. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A HIGH SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW FORECAST TO DIG A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS SYNOPTIC CHANGE HAS THE EFFECT OF DELAYING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS COULD STILL BE REQUIRED FOR LATER NHC FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.0N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 14.8N 105.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.6N 106.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 13.9N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 9

2013-10-23 16:43:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 231443 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS...THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX BRIEFLY IN 24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND COMES IN PHASE WITH LORENZO. BY THAT TIME HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL HAVE WEAKENED SO MUCH THAT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THEREAFTER. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 5 KT. LORENZO IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE SLOWER MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE MOSTLY THE SAME. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST OF LORENZO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS...ALONG WITH FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO OR ITS REMNANT LOW TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 29.5N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 29.9N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 30.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 31.5N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 32.7N 44.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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