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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 24

2013-07-05 16:48:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051448 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND INCREASED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.8/41 KT... T2.5/35 KT...AND T1.0/25 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...TAFB...AND SAB... RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH DALILA CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM...THE CYCLONE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION SINCE THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD IS JUST NOW ENDING AND THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE TEMPORARY. HOWEVER...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER WINDS EXISTING WEST OF THE CENTER...THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM THE USUAL 40 KT TO 45 KT IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT. REGARDLESS OF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DALILA DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING CREATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ERICK...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI TO THE EAST. AS ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO DALILA...ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE AND INDUCE EVEN GREATER SHEAR...WHICH WILL ACT TO HASTEN THE DEMISE OF DALILA WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ICON AND IVCN. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DALILA HAS SLOWED DOWN MARKEDLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 265/03 KT. AS DALILA UNDERGOES SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH ERICK TO ITS EAST AND ENCOUNTERS A STRENGTHENING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS WEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW REGIME AND ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 17.1N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 17.1N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.1N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 17.0N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 16.9N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 23

2013-07-05 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050836 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 DALILA STUBBORNLY PERSISTS IN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH IN A LIMITED AREA...DESPITE THE 12-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND MINIMAL 27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A PERFECTLY PLACED ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0424Z INDICATED ABOUT 30 KT PEAK WINDS FOR THE SYSTEM...MATCHING A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES. DALILA MAY HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS OR SO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK...DRY STABLE AIR...AND COOLER SSTS CAUSE THE CONVECTION TO CEASE FOR GOOD. AFTERWARDS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS A REMNANT LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS DALILA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO PROVIDED FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF DALILA...WHICH IS WEST AT 7 KT. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BUT AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED...PRIMARILY BY A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS NORTH OF DALILA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 17.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 17.3N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 17.3N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 17.1N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-07-05 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050833 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ERICK IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER... AND IN A BAND NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND TWO RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES SUGGEST THE WINDS ARE AT LEAST 35 KT. BASED ON THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM THE ACAPULCO RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERICK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION 300/11. OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE ERICK TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE WILL THE CENTER BE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. DURING THAT TIME...THE FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFDL...GFDN...AND CANADIAN MODELS TO THE RIGHT OF IT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...SUCH AS FORECAST BY THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MODELS...WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITION ONTO THE MEXICAN COAST. ERICK IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN AMOUNT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER ERICK THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR. ALSO...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A BETTER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND... IF THE CENTER GETS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST...LAND INTERACTION COULD RESULT IN A WEAKER CYCLONE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT DOES NOT CALL FOR ERICK TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 15.2N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.9N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 16.8N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 17.6N 105.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 18.6N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 21.5N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 22.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 3

2013-07-05 04:56:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050256 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK IS DOMINATED BY A MASS OF COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO INCREASED AND GAINED SLIGHTLY MORE CURVATURE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A PAIR OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES WITHIN INDICATED THAT THE CENTER IS BETTER DEFINED BUT EXPOSED NORTHEAST OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB OF T2.5/35 KT...MICROWAVE-ADJUSTED OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS OF 3.0...AND AN AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT RECENT FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/10. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE HEADING OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEND WEST- NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE HEAT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLIDING EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANGE IN TRACK WILL OCCUR. THIS DETAIL TO THE FORECAST HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW FAR OFFSHORE ERICK WILL TRACK FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ECMWF AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PREVAILS OVER THE STORM... ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION THAT CAN OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...DESPITE FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES MAY WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK WILL HAVE LIKELY ALREADY REACHED COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH REMNANT LOW STATUS FOREAST BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE LATEST TREND AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS...IVCN AND ICON. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 14.9N 100.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 15.8N 101.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 16.6N 102.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 17.4N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 18.3N 105.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 19.9N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 21.2N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 22

2013-07-05 04:46:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050246 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 DALILA CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF CONVECTION. DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR...AND MOST LIKELY THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...AS DALILA MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.3N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 17.5N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0000Z 17.7N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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