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Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 8

2019-07-14 16:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 141437 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Former Tropical Depression Four-E has been producing only small bursts of convection for the past 18 h or so. The system is moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable air mass, so re-development of organized convection appears unlikely. Thus, the system is being downgraded to a remnant low pressure area. The global models indicate that the remnant low should dissipate by 36 h at the latest, and the NHC forecast follows this scenario. The motion is west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the west later today, with this general motion continuing until dissipation. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 15/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/1200Z 18.6N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 16

2019-07-14 10:39:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 174 WTNT42 KNHC 140839 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Barry continues to move farther inland with the center now located over western Louisiana. Surface observations indicate that the minimum pressure has risen to 1005 mb, and the maximum winds are estimated to be near 40 kt, based on Doppler radar velocity data, but this intensity estimate could be a little generous. These lingering tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a convective band over water and near the coast of Louisiana south and southeast of the center. The tropical storm has wobbled a bit to the left recently, but smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 335/7 kt. The system is expected to turn northward later today toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and a north to north-northeast motion is expected until it dissipates in two to three days. The NHC track forecast is just a little to the west of the previous one, due to the initial position being further west than anticipated. Barry is forecast to weaken as it continues inland, and it should become a tropical depression later today. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Barry should lose much of its deep convection and become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours and dissipate entirely shortly after that over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the potential for flooding continues from Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Key Messages: 1. Although Barry is inland, life-threatening storm surge inundation is still occurring along the coast of south-central Louisiana. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water rises. 3. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue along portions of the Louisiana coast for several more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 31.4N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/1800Z 32.4N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z 35.2N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0600Z 36.7N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 7

2019-07-14 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140832 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 The depression has been devoid of significant convection since early Saturday evening. Even in the convective maximum period, the system has only been able to muster intermittent individual cells producing anvils that are being subsequently blown west of the circulation by about 20 kt of easterly shear. A recent scatterometer pass showed peak winds of around 25 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and this is the initial advisory intensity. The stable environment ahead of the cyclone is not conducive for its longevity and it will likely become a remnant low later today. The remnant low should dissipate within a couple of days. The motion continues west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the west later today or tonight. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 18.2N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0600Z 18.8N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z 18.8N 120.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 15

2019-07-14 04:41:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 930 WTNT42 KNHC 140241 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Radar and surface observations indicate that the center of Barry continues to move farther inland over Louisiana. Although the winds near the center have decreased, tropical-storm-force winds are being observed along portions of the Louisiana coast and over the northern Gulf of Mexico. An automated station near Vermilion Bay reported 44-kt sustained winds around 0000 UTC, and is the basis for the initial wind speed of 45 kt. Barry will continue to gradually weaken as it moves inland, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday, and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in 48-72 hours. Barry is moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt. The global models are in good agreement in taking the cyclone generally northward through a weakness in a mid-level ridge during the next day or so. After that time, Barry or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward as they become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus models. It should be noted that the primary hazard associated with Barry over the next couple of days will be heavy rainfall that is expected to spread northward over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Key Messages: 1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up through the lower Mississippi Valley, beginning late tonight and continuing through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water rises. 3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 31.0N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 32.0N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0000Z 33.3N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1200Z 34.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0000Z 36.1N 93.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 6

2019-07-14 04:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 The depression lost essentially all of its deep convection a few hours ago, as strong easterly shear has continued to disrupt the system. Recently, a few cells have formed near the center. Since the cyclone is over marginally warm sea surface temperatures, additional new convection could still re-develop in the circulation overnight. However, it seems likely that the system will degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. The motion continues west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the west tomorrow, and eventually a west-southwestward motion is likely as the shallow circulation follows the low-level tradewind flow. The official track forecast is somewhat south of the dynamical model consensus, and close to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 18.5N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1200Z 18.6N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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