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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-07-25 10:35:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250835 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Dalila is still technically a tropical cyclone based on the development of new convection within 70-75 nmi northeast of the center, which barely results in a Dvorak current intensity estimate of T1.5/25 kt. In addition, a 0539Z ASCAT-C overpass indicated a few 25-kt vectors were present in the northern semicircle. Therefore, Dalila remains a 25-kt tropical depression for this advisory. Having said that, recent satellite trends indicate that the convection is beginning to separate and move away from the low-level center due to northwesterly vertical wind shear, and this negative trend should continue, resulting in Dalila degenerating into a remnant low pressure system later today while the system moves over 24 deg C water. Dissipation of the cyclone is expected in 48-72 hours. Dalila is moving slowly northwestward or 315/05 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by this afternoon, followed by a westward motion on Friday and Saturday, which is expected to continue until dissipation occurs. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple consensus model TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 21.6N 120.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 22.0N 121.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0600Z 22.5N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 22.8N 124.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 23.1N 125.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-07-25 04:40:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250240 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Dalila is hanging on as a tropical depression. After having little deep convection throughout the day, a new area of thunderstorms has formed during the past several hours over the northeastern quadrant, which is over slightly warmer water. The remainder of the circulation consists of a swirl of low-level clouds. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt, in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data and the 00Z Dvorak classification from TAFB. Dalila is not expected to hold on much longer as a tropical cyclone, as progressively cooler waters and stable air should cause the deep convection to dissipate soon. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show gradual weakening, and ultimately dissipation in 2 to 3 days. The center of the depression has jogged to the north, likely due to the development of the convection on its northeast side. Smoothing through this recent jog yields a motion of 325/6. As the convection dies, the weak cyclone is expected to turn to the west-northwest and then the west within the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one, based on the more northward initial position, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 21.4N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 21.7N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0000Z 22.2N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 22.8N 124.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-07-24 22:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 517 WTPZ45 KNHC 242032 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Deep convection associated with Dalila has continued to wane since the previous advisory, and the system has become a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with a small area of colder cloud tops over the eastern semicircle. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds of 25 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory. Dalila will continue to move over progressively cooler waters, and into a drier and more stable air mass during the next day or two. This should result in additional weakening, and Dalila is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Thursday. Dalila is still moving northwestward or 315/6 kt. As the cyclone weakens and becomes an increasingly vertically shallow system, it is forecast to turn west-northwestward within the low-level easterly flow. The models are in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast track is close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 20.7N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1800Z 21.9N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 22.3N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 22.8N 124.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-07-24 16:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241431 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Deep convection associated with the cyclone has continued to decrease in coverage this morning, however, there is still a broken band of convection over the southeastern portion of the circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB support maintaining an intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. Dalila will be moving over SSTs of 23-24 deg C later today, and into a dry and more stable airmass. This should result in weakening, and the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. It appears that Dalila has taken a northward jog this morning, but the longer-term motion estimate is 320/6 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Dalila should continue moving northwestward today, then turn west-northwestward as it comes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position, however, the updated official forecast is still near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 20.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 21.1N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 22.3N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-07-24 10:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240836 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Dalila has maintained a robust low-level circulation based on recent scatterometer wind data, but those data also indicate that Dalila's peak winds had decreased to 27-30 kt despite a sharp increase in deep convection near and southeast of the center. UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates suggest a higher intensity of 35-44 kt. However, it appears that the cooler water that the cyclone is moving over has stabilized the boundary layer, which is not allowing the normal downward mixing of stronger winds aloft to reach the surface. Given the lower ASCAT wind data, Dalila has been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. The initial motion estimate is 315/05 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track and intensity forecast philosophies. Dalila is expected to move northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Thursday when the weakening cyclone becomes more shallow and comes under the influence of easterly trade wind flow. The cyclone is now moving over 25 deg C sea-surface temperatures, with cooler water and more stable air still ahead of Dalila. As a result, convection is expected to gradually wane during the next 24 hours, accompanied by a steady spin down of the vortex, which should result in the system degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday morning, if not sooner. The NHC track and intensity forecasts closely follow the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, respectively. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 19.8N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1800Z 21.8N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z 22.2N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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