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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-07-24 04:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240240 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Dalila has changed little during the last several hours. The storm remains very asymmetric with deep convection limited to the southeastern quadrant due to northwesterly vertical wind shear. An ASCAT pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds of about 35 kt, and since the system has been steady state, the initial intensity is held at that value. Dalila has just crossed the 26 degree C isotherm and it is headed for even cooler waters. In addition, a field of stratocumulus clouds are seen in satellite images near and to the west of the system, indicative of the nearby stable air mass. These conditions should lead to weakening soon, and Dalila is expected to become a tropical depression within the next 12 hours and a remnant low in a day or so. The global models show the remnant low opening up into a trough in a few days or less. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and in line with the majority of the guidance. The storm is still moving northwestward, but it is gradually turning to the left. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast during the next day or so, as the cyclone loses its convection and moves within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, and that motion should continue until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 19.4N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 21.3N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-07-23 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 612 WTPZ45 KNHC 232032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Dalila has become less organized since the previous advisory. Northerly shear and cooler waters has caused the primary convective area to decrease in coverage and become more separated from the surface circulation. An ASCAT overpass from around midday sampled the southeastern portion of the circulation and detected 35 to 40 kt winds, which suggests Dalila could have been slightly stronger than analyzed this morning. Based on the ASCAT and the recent degradation of the convective organization, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. Dalila is moving northwestward or 325/7 kt. The cyclone is currently moving around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States. As Dalila weakens and becomes a more vertically shallow system during the next 12 to 24 hours, it should turn west-northwestward to westward within the low-level steering flow. The latest guidance envelope is not much different from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Dalila is currently crossing the 26C isotherm and the northerly shear is not forecast to abate. As a result, gradual weakening is anticipated. As the cyclone moves over even cooler SSTs and into a more stable air mass during the next 24 hours, the system should lose its remaining deep convection and become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 to 36 hours. The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 19.1N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 20.7N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 21.3N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z 21.8N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Remnants of Three Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-07-23 16:59:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 231459 TCDAT3 Remnants Of Three Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Recent surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the depression has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. Although the plane found a weak closed circulation near the northwestern edge of the convection earlier this morning, the last pass through that area has shown light southwesterly winds and no evidence of a surface circulation. As a result, this will be the final advisory on this system. Data from the aircraft indicate that the system is still producing winds of around 30 kt, and this remains the initial intensity. The system is likely to continue producing gusty winds through tonight. The remnants are moving northward or 360/15 kt. The remnants should turn north-northeastward as they become embedded within southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front near the southeastern United States. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 29.0N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-07-23 16:38:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231438 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Dalila continues to battle 15-20 kt of northerly shear with deep convection displaced across the southern semicircle of the storm. Satellite imagery indicates that there are multiple low level swirls encircling a mean center that is located just north of the edge of the convection. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and UW-CIMMS support maintaining a 35 kt initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion is 330/07. A mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States will steer the cyclone to the northwest through much of tonight. As the system weakens, it will become steered by an increasing component of the low-level flow, resulting in a turn more to the west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday. Similar to the past few model cycles, the latest guidance has shifted slightly to the west, and therefore the official forecast track has also been adjusted a little in that direction. Dalila is approaching the 26 C isotherm and the center is forecast to cross it in about 12 hours, which should cause a weakening trend to begin by tonight. In addition, the current shear is not expected to decrease significantly in the next day or so, and during that time the cyclone will be moving into a drier, more stable environment. These factors should cause Dalila to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low by Wednesday night. The latest forecast is essentially an update of the previous official intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 18.7N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 19.4N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 20.3N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-07-23 10:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230837 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Deep convection has become stronger and closer to the center of the cyclone during the past several hours. While the circulation is still elongated, it has become better defined, with the latest ASCAT pass at 0440 UTC showing 30-35 kt winds in the southern quadrant. Since TAFB, ADT and SATCON have the current intensity as a tropical storm, plus the recent increase in organization, the current wind speed has been set to 35 kt. Dalila is probably near peak intensity. Since SSTs drop off later today, along with a continuation of moderate northerly shear, weakening should begin on Wednesday. In a couple of days, SSTs near 24C, dry air aloft, and a more stable atmosphere should contribute to Dalila losing deep convection, thus becoming a remnant low. This is the solution provided by much of the guidance, and the latest NHC intensity prediction is close to the previous one. The cyclone has been moving erratically at 330/6 due to the center trying to reform near the strong convection to the south. A mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States should provide similar steering during the next day or so, causing a motion generally toward the northwest by Wednesday. As Dalila weakens, it will likely turn more to the west-northwest on Thursday within the low-level flow. Similar to the past few cycles, model guidance is continuing to shift westward, and the official forecast follows that trend, not terribly far from the eastern Pacific track consensus model TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 18.0N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 22.3N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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