je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-07-22 16:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221435 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A recent satellite microwave pass indicates that the depression has not gotten any better organized this morning. It appears that northeasterly shear is keeping much of the convection displaced to the west of the center of circulation. Both the latest TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate and UW-CIMMS objective intensity estimate indicate that the system remains a 30-kt depression. The initial motion of the depression is 355/08 kt. Model guidance is in good agreement on a continuation of this general motion for the next 36-48 hours as the depression is steered between a weak mid-level trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its northeast. After 48 hours, the system should begin to weaken and turn toward the northwest as it becomes steered by the lower-level flow. The latest NHC forecast track is very near the previous official forecast and is near the track guidance consensus. Although convection has increased this morning, the shear is preventing the inner core of the depression from becoming better established. This shear is forecast to remain in the 15-20 kt range for the next 48 hours which should continue to prevent any significant intensification during that time frame. Since the other environmental parameters are somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or so, the depression will likely become a minimal tropical storm later today or tonight. After 48 hours, the system will move over waters below 26 C and into a stable atmospheric environment which should induce steady weakening. By 72 hours, the system is expected to become a remnant low, with dissipation likely by 120 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous NHC forecast, and is near the more reliable intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.9N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.8N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 22.3N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-07-22 10:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220836 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 The area of disturbed weather and low pressure system located about 600 nmi southwest of Baja California Sur that the NHC has been monitoring for the past several days has finally developed a sufficient inner-core wind field and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on two ASCAT passes between 0430-0530Z that showed 30-31 kt wind vectors in the western quadrant, which corresponds well with the latest TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 360/08 kt due to the lack of a well-defined center until recently. However, the NHC model guidance is in surprisingly good agreement on the cyclone moving northward for the next 36-48 hours around the eastern periphery of a broad mid-level low/trough located to the west of the depression. By 72 h and continuing through 120 h, the cyclone is forecast to move northwestward as a weakening remnant low pressure system. The NHC forecast track lies close to a blend of the various consensus models, and is about midway between the GFS and ECMWF model solutions that bound on the eastern and western fringes, respectively, of the track guidance envelope. Modest north to northeasterly vertical wind shear and occasional intrusions of dry air are expected to hinder development and strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2 and especially by day 3, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures, which will induce at least steady weakening despite decreasing vertical wind shear conditions during that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly higher higher than the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models, with the latter guidance calling for no strengthening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 15.0N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.3N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 17.9N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 19.2N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.4N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 23.2N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 24.6N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
SW Portland residents invited to Fair Housing Community Conversation + Discussion
2019-07-16 02:16:50| PortlandOnline
Participants can learn about and discuss how Portlands housing and land use history continue to shape our neighborhoods.
Tags: community
discussion
fair
housing
Tropical Depression Barry Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-07-14 22:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142033 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Barry Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Barry's convective pattern in radar and satellite imagery has continued to erode, and the center has become more difficult to locate in radar imagery. Surface observations from the Shreveport, Louisiana, area were helpful in locating Barry's position. Although sustained surface winds of 34-36 kt have been occurring during the past few hours at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana (PACL1), those winds are not directly associated with Barry's circulation and are instead locally accelerated straight-line winds. Therefore, Barry's intensity has been lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, making the cyclone a tropical depression. The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Barry is forecast to continue moving northward tonight around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge, and then turn toward the north-northeast and northeast late Monday into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models TCVA, TVDG, and HCCA. Barry will weaken further during the next 48 hours as the cyclone continues to move inland, degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low pressure system by Monday night and dissipating on Tuesday over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the potential for flooding, including river flooding, will continue from Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Barry. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding is expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana through portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, southeast Missouri, and western Tennessee through at least Monday. Significant river flooding is also likely across south-central Louisiana. 2. Gale-force winds, especially in gusts, will be possible into this evening over the coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana. However, these winds are not directly associated with Barry's circulation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 32.8N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0600Z 33.9N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1800Z 35.3N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 16/0600Z 36.8N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 16/1800Z 38.2N 91.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
barry
tropical
Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-07-14 16:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 835 WTNT42 KNHC 141451 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Barry's radar and satellite presentations have continued to degrade, which is typical for an inland tropical cyclone. However, some curved rain bands producing sustained tropical-storm-force winds still exist over water and along the south-central and southwestern coastal areas of Louisiana. Data from the Ft. Polk WSR-88D radar indicated average Doppler velocity values of 50-59 kt at 11,000-14,000 ft between 0900-1200 UTC this morning over the Gulf of Mexico, which would yield equivalent surface winds of 40-45 kt. Thus, Barry's intensity was maintained at 40 kt at the 1200 UTC synoptic time. Since then, Doppler velocities have decreased to around 45 kt at 11,000 ft and surface winds of 34 kt have recently been reported at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana. Therefore, the intensity has been lowered to 35 kt at the 1500 UTC advisory time. The pressure of 1006 mb is based on nearby surface observations. The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Barry is forecast to continue moving northward today and tonight into a break in the subtropical ridge, and turn toward north-northeast and northeast late Monday into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the various simple consensus models and the NOAA HCCA model. Barry will weaken further today as it continues to move inland, and it should become a tropical depression by tonight if not sooner. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours and dissipate on Tuesday over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the potential for flooding, including river flooding, continues from Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water rises. 2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue along portions of the Louisiana coast for a few more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 31.8N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0000Z 32.8N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1200Z 34.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 35.7N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 37.4N 91.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
barry
Sites : [413] [414] [415] [416] [417] [418] [419] [420] [421] [422] [423] [424] [425] [426] [427] [428] [429] [430] [431] [432] next »