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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-07-28 10:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280833 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 Erick's cloud pattern has not changed much in organization over the past several hours, although there is slight evidence of increased convective banding over the southern semicircle of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 35 kt, so the advisory intensity is held at 35 kt for now. An upper-level anticyclone is established over the storm, and water temperatures are sufficiently warm for intensification. Apparently, Erick has not yet acquired a well-defined inner core but that is expected to occur rather soon. Therefore, steady strengthening is likely to begin within the next 12 hours. Some of the dynamical intensity models along with the simple and corrected consensus aids show the system becoming a hurricane within 36 hours, so the official forecast has been increased from the earlier NHC predictions and is near or below the consensus through 72 hours. By days 4 to 5, increased shear and some drier air is likely to cause weakening. The motion continues to be only slightly north of due west, or 280/14 kt. The steering scenario is fairly straightforward. A fairly well-defined mid-level ridge is forecast by the global models to remain established to the north of Erick throughout most of the forecast period. By the end of the forecast period, this ridge is likely to weaken, and this could cause a more northward motion to develop. By that time however, the weakening cyclone should be steered more by the low-level easterly flow which should keep the motion on a generally westward or just north of westward heading. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the corrected dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 12.1N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 12.4N 130.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 12.8N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 13.4N 135.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 14.0N 138.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 15.4N 143.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 16.6N 148.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 17.0N 153.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-07-28 04:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 An ASCAT-C scatterometer overpass this afternoon showed an area of 35-kt winds over the eastern semicircle of the system's circulation, which led to upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Erick in an update just after the previous official advisory was issued. The overall presentation of the cyclone has changed little over the past several hours, and the latest satellite intensity estimate averages from TAFB and UW-CIMSS support keeping the system at 35 kt for this advisory. The motion of Erick is 280/15 kt, driven by strong mid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone. This ridging is forecast to persist to the north of the Erick, with only slight weakening expected later in the forecast period. This will result in a motion just north of west with a slight decrease in forward speed in a few days. Model guidance is in very good agreement on the forecast track of Erick. The latest guidance runs shifted back northward slightly from their previous runs, and the latest official forecast was nudged only a little north to lie essentially in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Environmental conditions are favorable for Erick to intensify over the next 3 to 4 days, with the only current inhibiting factor is that the system lacks a well-defined inner core. How fast this inner core consolidates will be a key factor in the pace of intensification of Erick in the short term. Based on expectation that the inner core will consolidate, the NHC official intensity forecast has been increased through 96 hours to follow the trends in the intensity guidance. It should be noted that some of the more reliable dynamical guidance is suggesting that Erick could intensify more than indicated in this favorable environment. By about 96 hours, Erick should begin to weaken as it is expected to begin moving into an environment of increasing southwesterly shear, with SHIPS guidance indicating over 20 kt of shear by day 5. And, at this same time dry air surrounding the system may begin to entrain into the storm's circulation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 11.9N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 12.2N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 12.6N 131.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 13.7N 137.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 15.0N 142.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-07-27 22:32:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 272031 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 The depression has not changed in organization since earlier this morning. GOES-17 visible imagery suggests that the depression's center is embedded within an elongated northeast-to-southwest oriented trough, yet the cyclone also has a central area of convection and some convective banding. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB. It should be noted that just-received ASCAT data suggests the possibility the system is at tropical storm strength, and if this is confirmed a Tropical Cyclone Update will be issued before the next advisory. A strong mid-level high is centered over the U.S./Mexico border, with the flow on its southern periphery pushing the depression quickly westward with a motion of 280/16 kt. The ridging is not expected to break down much during the forecast period, thus the cyclone is expected to maintain a westward or west-northwestward motion through day 5, with perhaps some slowing of its forward speed. The track models are tightly clustered, although most of them lie south of the previous official forecast. The new forecast has therefore been adjusted southward, but it lies along the northern edge of the guidance envelope. Vertical shear is expected to be low for at least the next 4 days, with sea surface temperatures ahead of the cyclone being generally between 27 and 29 degrees Celsius. Therefore, strengthening is anticipated, although the trend could be gradual in the short term while the cyclone attempts to form a more symmetric circulation. The updated NHC official intensity forecast lies close to the IVCN model consensus, bringing the system to tropical storm strength by tonight and then to hurricane strength on Tuesday. If the circulation becomes more well defined sooner, then the cyclone could strengthen a little more than indicated in the forecast, as suggested by the HWRF and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 11.6N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 11.8N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 12.2N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 12.6N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 13.2N 135.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 14.3N 140.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 15.6N 145.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 16.7N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg/Taylor
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-07-27 16:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 271433 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking for several days across the eastern Pacific has developed enough organized convection near the center of circulation, and is now classified as a 30-kt tropical depression. This is supported by T2.0 Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB. The depression is embedded within a good environment for intensification of low shear and high SSTs. Despite the environment, most of the models show only a very modest strengthening. The NHC forecast is a little more aggressive than the models and is above the intensity consensus. The depression is anticipated to become a tropical storm later today and reach hurricane status by the end of the forecast period. The depression is well embedded within the deep easterly flow south of a subtropical ridge and is moving westward at 16 kt. Since this steering flow pattern is not forecast to change much, the cyclone should continue on a general west or west-northwest track through the next 5 days, perhaps with a small decrease in forward speed. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and very near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 11.3N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 11.3N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 11.9N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 12.5N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 13.2N 133.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 14.5N 139.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 15.5N 144.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-07-25 16:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251432 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Dalila's circulation is becoming elongated, and the remaining thunderstorm activity is displaced well to the northeast. Earlier scatterometer data revealed that winds were 20 to 25 knots, and most likely these winds have decreased since then. On this basis, it is estimated that Dalila has degenerated into a remnant low with 20-kt winds. Now that the system is shallow, the remnant low will continue to move toward the west-northwest at about 6 to 8 kt, steered by the low-level trade winds. While some intermittent patches of convection are possible, the system is forecast to dissipate in a day or so over cooler waters. This is the last advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 21.9N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 26/0000Z 22.3N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 22.7N 123.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 23.0N 124.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila/Taylor
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