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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-07-12 16:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 121448 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Barry has strengthened during the past several hours. The Air Force plane reported maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 62 kt and reliable-looking SFMR winds of 50-55 kt in the strong convection that has developed in the southern quadrant. In addition, the data from both planes indicate the central pressure has fallen to near 998 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. Data from the NOAA plane, which is flying near 460 mb, shows that the center at that level is south of the low-level center, likely due to ongoing northerly shear. The initial motion is an erratic 290/4. While there is still a larger than normal spread between the UKMET on the left side and the HWRF on the right side, the track guidance has come into better agreement that Barry will turn northwestward later today or tonight, with this motion continuing until the center makes landfall along the Louisiana coast in 24-30 h. After landfall, the system should move northward through a break in the ridge of high pressure over the United States until the 72 h point, after which it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The new track forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast, and it lies near the various consensus models. Barry has been strengthening despite an asymmetric convective structure, ongoing northerly shear, and the presence of mid- to upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity guidance suggests that, while the environment will be at best marginally favorable, the cyclone will continue to intensify until landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Barry to become a hurricane in 24 h, just before landfall, with this forecast being slightly above the guidance. After landfall, the cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low forecast to occur in about 72 h. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels are already beginning to rise in these areas, with the peak inundation expected on Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast and inland across portions of south-central Louisiana where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 28.2N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 30.5N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/1200Z 31.8N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/1200Z 34.4N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z 37.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1200Z 39.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-07-12 10:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120835 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Barry does not have the typical presentation of a tropical cyclone on satellite imagery at this time. The cloud pattern consists of a cyclonically curved convective band on the southern semicircle, and the system is devoid of an inner convective core near the center. Barry is an asymmetric storm with most of the tropical-storm-force winds occurring in the eastern semicircle. An Air Force plane sampled the area a few hours ago and measured peak flight-level winds of 51 kt with SFMR winds of 43 kt. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt in this advisory. Another reconnaissance plane will be investigating Barry in a few hours. Barry is moving over warm waters of about 30 degrees Celsius, and still has the opportunity to strengthen. Although the NHC intensity forecast again does not explicitly show Barry becoming a hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur before landfall in about 24 hours. Most of the models show modest strengthening despite the northerly shear and the effect of the dry air. After landfall, steady weakening is anticipated. The broad center of circulation appears to be moving slowly toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 4 kt. This is taking the average motion of the several swirls rotating around a larger circulation. The cyclone should soon begin to turn toward the northwest and then northward around the periphery of a mid-level ridge. The overall guidance has changed very little and the NHC forecast is not different from the previous one. It is in the middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area by Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 28.1N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 28.4N 90.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 29.1N 91.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 30.0N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/0600Z 31.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/0600Z 36.5N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0600Z 39.5N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-07-12 04:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120255 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Despite the lack of convection over the northern portion of the storm, reconnaissance aircraft data show that Barry has strengthened this evening. The aircraft has found peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 55 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 45 kt. The NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve aircraft have also reported that the pressure has fallen a couple of millibars since the previous advisory. The tropical storm continues to be affected by northerly shear and dry mid-level air. Despite the shear, nearly all of the intensity guidance and the global models gradually deepen the cyclone during the next 24-36 hours and the NHC intensity forecast once again calls for strengthening until the cyclone reaches the coast. Although the NHC intensity forecast again does not explicitly show Barry becoming a hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur before landfall. After that time, steady weakening is expected while the center moves inland. The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in best agreement with the latest HFIP-corrected-consensus model. Barry is moving westward or 275 degrees at about 3 kt. The tropical storm should move slowly westward to west-northwestward around the southern portion of a mid-level ridge tonight and Friday. After that time, a weakness in the ridge should cause Barry to turn northwestward, then northward later in the weekend. The overall track guidance envelope changed little this cycle. The UKMET is still along along the far western side of the envelope, but the 18Z HWRF did shift westward and is closer to the center of the envelope. The NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official forecast, and lies between the GFEX and HCCA consensus models. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area by Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 27.9N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 28.0N 89.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 28.5N 90.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 29.5N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 14/0000Z 30.5N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/0000Z 33.2N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/0000Z 35.7N 91.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0000Z 38.2N 87.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-07-11 22:59:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 112058 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Barry has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with a convective band forming closer to the center in the southern semicircle and the central pressure falling to near 1003 mb. However, the strongest winds are still 70 nm or more from the center, and there are several cloud swirls rotating around the mean center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on earlier aircraft and scatterometer data, but it is possible this is a little conservative. The initial motion is 275/4. Barry is being steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next 24-48 h. This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and eventually northward. However, there remains a large spread in the track guidance. The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move generally northward across southeastern Louisiana, while the UKMET and the UKMET ensemble mean take the cyclone to the upper Texas coast. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes. There was a slight westward shift in the guidance envelope since the last advisory, which resulted in the consensus models being close to the previous NHC forecast track. As a result, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track, and it calls for the center of Barry to make landfall on the central Louisiana coast between 36-48 h. After 72 h, the cyclone should recurve northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. Barry is still being affected by northerly shear, and GOES-16 airmass imagery indicates mid- to upper-level dry air coming from the northeast has spread over the low-level center. So far, this has not stopped the development, and the guidance is in good agreement that intensification will continue. Thus, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one in calling for intensification until landfall. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, there is a significant chance that Barry will be a hurricane when it makes landfall between 36-48 h in agreement with the HWRF and GFS models. After landfall, Barry should weaken as it moves through the Mississippi Valley, and it is forecast to become a remnant low by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach. Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area by Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 27.8N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 27.9N 89.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 28.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 29.0N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 30.0N 91.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/1800Z 32.5N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/1800Z 35.0N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1800Z 37.5N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-07-11 16:53:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 111453 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 The low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico has become better organized during the past several hours, with a large convective band in the southern semicircle. The circulation center has also become better defined, although it is still elongated and multiple cloud swirls are seen rotating around the mean center. In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft report flight-level and SFMR winds high enough for an initial intensity of 35 kt. Based on these developments, the system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/4. Barry is being steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next 24-48 h. This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and eventually northward. However, there is a large spread in the track guidance. The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move almost due north from its current position with a landfall in Mississippi, while the UKMET takes the cyclone to the upper Texas coast. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes. Overall, there has been a slight eastward shift of the guidance envelope, so the new forecast track is also adjusted slightly to the east. It should be noted, though, that the new track is west of the consensus models. Barry is being affected by northerly shear, and water vapor imagery indicates mid- to upper-level dry air moving into the cyclone from the northeast. Some moderate shear is now expected to persist until the cyclone makes landfall. Despite this less than ideal environment, the guidance forecasts slow but steady intensification, so the NHC forecast follows this trend. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one in calling for Barry to become a hurricane just before landfall in Louisiana, and it lies between the HCCA and ICON consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Barry is expected to bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast during the next several days. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach. Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials. 3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for much of the Louisiana coast and additional watches and warnings could be required later today. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 27.8N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 27.8N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 28.1N 90.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 32.0N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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