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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 14

2019-07-13 22:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 345 WTNT42 KNHC 132056 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Barry moved inland across Marsh Island and Intracoastal City, Louisiana around 16-18Z. Since then, the system has moved farther inland and weakening has started. The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on recent observations from Eugene Island and Cypremort Point. The initial motion is now 330/6. Barry should continue north-northwestward and northward through Louisiana for the next 30-36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north. After that, the cyclone or its remnants should encounter the westerlies and turn north-northeastward before they dissipate. The new NHC forecast track has changed little from the previous advisory and lies near the various consensus models. Barry should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and it is currently forecast to weaken below tropical-storm strength in about 24 h. Subsequently, the cyclone should degenerate to a remnant low between 48-72 h and dissipate between 72-96 h. It should be noted that by Sunday morning the strongest winds will likely be occurring well away from the center over the Louisiana coast and the coastal waters. Barry made landfall as a hurricane. However, due to the poor center definition, the exact times and locations will be determined in post-analysis. Key Messages: 1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. 2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely across portions of south-central and southeast Louisiana into Mississippi through Sunday as Barry moves farther inland. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley. 3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 30.1N 92.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/0600Z 31.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1800Z 32.2N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/0600Z 33.6N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/1800Z 35.0N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1800Z 38.5N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

2019-07-13 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132031 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 The depression consists of a small low-level swirl, exposed to the east of a shrinking area of convection. The initial winds have been maintained at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. For the moment, the system appears to be on its way to becoming a remnant low with convection gradually decreasing, just as most of the dynamical models predicted during the last day or so. There has been no important change in the guidance, and the cyclone is still forecast to gradually weaken during the next couple of days and could become a remnant low as early as tomorrow afternoon. The remnant low could then last for another day or so after that, but should open into a trough and dissipate early next week. The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt, but is forecast to turn toward the west tonight as it weakens and loses its convection. While there is still some spread in the models, especially regarding how far westward the remnant low will make it before it dissipates, they all generally agree on this forecast. The NHC forecast is near the mean of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is largely unchanged from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.8N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 18.1N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0600Z 18.4N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 18.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Barry Forecast Discussion Number 13

2019-07-13 16:56:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 131455 TCDAT2 Hurricane Barry Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Between 11-12Z, the National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 62 kt and a peak gust of 74 kt at an elevation of about 10 m. Doppler radar winds from the Slidell WSR-88D suggested surface winds of 60-65 kt as well. In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported SFMR wind estimates of 60-63 kt near Eugene Island, and 850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt. Based on these data and the possibility that the strongest winds were not sampled, it is estimated that Barry became a hurricane around 11-12Z despite its less than classical appearance in satellite imagery. It should be noted that hurricane-force winds are limited to a small area east of the center, and that the upgrade to a hurricane means little in terms of the overall impacts from Barry. Barry is now moving northwestward with an initial motion of 310/5. The center should cross the Louisiana coast during the next few hours, then move slowly toward the north-northwest and north through Louisiana for the next 36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north. This general motion should continue until the system dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west of the previous one based on the initial position and a slight westward shift in the track guidance. Barry should quickly weaken below hurricane strength as it moves onshore, and subsequently it is forecast to weaken below tropical storm strength between 24-36 h and degenerate into a trough by 96 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is ongoing along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. 2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely later today and tonight as Barry moves inland, especially across portions of south-central and southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley. 3. Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast. Tropical storm conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 29.6N 92.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1200Z 31.6N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/0000Z 33.0N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/1200Z 34.3N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1200Z 37.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2019-07-13 16:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131435 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 There are no changes of significance to report on the depression or its official forecast. The system is still strongly sheared from the east, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the cyclone's intensity at 30 kt. First-light visible imagery revealed that the depression's center is still exposed to the northeast of a small area of deep convection. All of the global and hurricane dynamical models indicate that the system will begin to weaken later today and could dissipate as early as late Sunday or early Monday due to the combination of a dry near-storm environment and unfavorable upper-level winds. There is no change to the NHC intensity forecast, which closely follows the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt. The cyclone will likely turn westward as it weakens and loses its deep convection later today or tonight, and then continue on a westward heading until it dissipates in a couple of days. The NHC forecast continues to closely follow the track model consensus, with a little extra weight given to the GFS model which has performed well for the depression so far. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 17.3N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 17.8N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 18.3N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 12

2019-07-13 10:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130841 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Barry continues to inch its way toward the Louisiana coast with some of the northern bands now moving across southeastern Louisiana. Satellite and radar imagery still indicate that the storm has an asymmetric structure with most of its deep convection located to the south and east of the center due to ongoing north-northwesterly shear. The convection has been expanding though, and some bands are starting to wrap around the northeastern side, which could indicate some decrease in shear. The initial intensity for this advisory is held at 55 kt, which is in agreement with recent ASCAT passes and a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Doppler radar velocities between 10000 and 12000 feet show winds of 60-67 kt, but based on surface observations and the ASCAT data these might not be mixing down to the surface. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Barry in a few hours and the data they collect should provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity. Barry continues its erratic motion toward the west-northwest. Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 300/4 kt. A northwestward turn should occur soon, and the center is expected to cross the coast of south-central Louisiana within the next 6 to 12 hours. After that time, a turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast as the cyclone moves inland over the Mississippi Valley toward a weakness in the ridge. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west of the previous one, but it remains on the eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models. Although not explicitly shown in the forecast below, Barry is still expected to be a hurricane before it makes landfall later today. After landfall, steady weakening is expected and Barry is forecast to become a tropical depression in about 36 hours and degenerate into a remnant low in two to three days. The global models show the remnant low dissipating over the Ohio Valley in 3 or 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the guidance in the short term, but in line with the consensus models after that. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels have already begun to rise in these areas, with peak inundation expected to occur later today. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 29.1N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 29.8N 92.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/0600Z 30.9N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1800Z 32.3N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0600Z 36.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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