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Tropical Depression Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 7

2019-07-08 04:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080231 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Cosme Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 All of the central convection associated with Cosme dissipated about 5 hours ago, around 2200 UTC, and the cyclone is on its way to becoming a remnant low. Since the core convection has now dissipated, it is assumed that the cyclone's winds have decreased since the last ASCAT pass, which showed an area of 30-35 kt winds. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Cosme a tropical depression. This intensity estimate is also in fair agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and automated Dvorak values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Cosme is currently over cool 24 degree C waters, and it is headed for even cooler waters during the next couple of days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a dry and stable air mass and an increase in westerly shear should cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low overnight or early Monday and dissipate in two or three days. The tropical depression is moving northwestward at 9 kt. Cosme is expected to slow down and gradually turn toward the left, within the low-level flow, until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is just a tad north of the previous advisory track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 19.1N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 19.8N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/0000Z 20.3N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1200Z 20.8N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0000Z 21.3N 122.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 6

2019-07-07 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 072032 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 Deep convection has been pulsing since the previous advisory, with a small burst of thunderstorms having recently developed in the northwestern quadrant. Satellite data indicate that the low-level center is less than 45 nmi from the -30 deg C cloud tops and cirrus has been blowing off toward the southeast across the center, indications that convective feedback is still maintaining Cosme as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory based on a few 30-33 kt vectors that were present in an 1813Z ASCAT-B partial scatterometer pass over the northwestern quadrant of Cosme's surface wind field. The initial motion estimate is 315/09 kt. Cosme is expected to move northwestward tonight and then turn toward the west-northwest by Monday afternoon, maintaining that motion throughout the remainder of the forecast period as the shallow circulation comes under the influence of the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is a little north of the previous advisory track and is similar to a blend of the HCCA, TVCE, and TVDG consensus models. Cosme has just passed over the 26-deg-C SST isotherm and water temperatures ahead of the cyclone are forecast to cool to near 24C in about 24 hours. The combination of cooler waters, entrainment of dry stable air, and increasing northwesterly wind shear is expected to bring about the demise of Cosme in 12-24 hours. The cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later tonight, becoming a post-tropical system on Monday, and dissipating by 96 hours, if not sooner. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.6N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 19.2N 119.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0600Z 20.4N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1800Z 20.9N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1800Z 21.7N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 5

2019-07-07 16:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 071433 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 After a brief convective hiatus overnight, a small burst of thunderstorms has redeveloped near and to the northeast of the low-level center this morning, making positioning of the tropical cyclone a little difficult. However, convection has been on the wane during the past couple of hours despite relatively low vertical wind shear conditions. The initial intensity has been maintained at 35 kt due to the increase in central convection. The initial position and motion estimate of 305/08 kt are based primarily on passive microwave satellite data. Cosme is forecast to maintain a northwestward to west-northwestward motion over the next few days due to the influence of a deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. A 72-hr post-tropical position was added due to the global models now hanging on to a closed surface low a little bit longer. Otherwise, the new NHC forecast track is similar to but north of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more northward initial position, and lies close to a blend of the HCCA and the simple consensus models. Cosme is moving over over marginal 26-deg-C SSTs, and the water beneath the cyclone is forecast to cool to near 25C in about 24 hours. The unfavorable oceanic conditions, combined with the entrainment of drier and more stable low- and mid-level air, should result in complete loss of deep convection near the center by Monday. As a result, Cosme is forecast to become a depression later today, degenerate into post-tropical remnant low on Monday, and dissipate in the 72-96 hour time period. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.7N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 18.4N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 19.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 19.7N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z 20.2N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 21.2N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 4

2019-07-07 11:04:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070903 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 4...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 Corrected to show dissipated at 10/0600Z Dry air appears to be taking its toll on Cosme. Deep convection mostly dissipated earlier tonight and water vapor imagery shows very dry air impinging on the northwestern side of the cyclone, and wrapping into the southern semicircle of the circulation. There has been some new convection developing about 100 n mi northeast of the center over the past few hours, which is likely associated with the approaching diurnal convective maximum time period. A recent scatterometer pass that partially captured Cosme's wind field indicated weakening had occurred over the western portion of the cyclone over the past several hours which suggests that an overall weakening trend has begun. Therefore the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt and this is in agreement with the latest TAFB and ADT satellite intensity estimates. Cosme will continue to battle dry air while moving over marginally favorable SSTs today. There is a chance for the regenerating convection to expand toward the cyclone's center over the next several hours, thus prolonging the time Cosme will remain a tropical storm. However, later today the cyclone will begin to cross the 26 C isotherm and also will enter an even drier environment. This should cause Cosme to weaken to a tropical depression. Thereafter, the dry air and cooler SSTs will cause Cosme to become devoid of deep convection and the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low either by tonight, or on Monday. The latest official intensity forecast shows a weakening trend that is a little faster than previously forecast, and is in agreement with the latest intensity guidance as well as model simulated satellite imagery. Cosme continues on a generally west-northwest track, and has slowed slightly to around 9 kt. The cyclone will be steered toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge developing to its northwest over the next couple of days while gradually decreasing in forward speed. The latest track guidance is close to the previous forecast and near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 16.9N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 18.4N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 19.1N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0600Z 19.7N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 3

2019-07-07 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 There has been little overall change in the tropical storm's organization since the previous advisory. Deep convection continues to burst over the northeastern portion of Cosme's circulation, however it remains well removed from the center. The initial wind speed has been maintained at 45 kt, which is based on earlier ASCAT data and is still above the most recent Dvorak intensity estimates. It appears that Cosme is unlikely to strengthen any more. Dry air to the northwest of the cyclone and the sprawling structure of the system should hinder intensification while the system moves over 26-27 degree Celsius water during the next 12-18 hours. After that time, Cosme will reach cooler SSTs and gradual weakening should begin, and the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical within a couple of days, if not sooner. The updated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest statistical guidance and the various consensus aids. Visible satellite imagery has revealed several cloud swirls rotating within the storm's circulation, which has made tracking the center of the system a little more difficult than usual. Using a mean center of the various swirls yields an initial motion estimate of 300/10 kt. Cosme should continue to be steered west-northwestward during the next 12-24 hours by a mid-level ridge extending westward from northwestern Mexico. By Monday, the western portion of the ridge is expected to weaken which should induce a slower northwestward motion. Later in the period, the remnant low should turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest within the low-level trade wind flow. The guidance envelope did not change much this cycle and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.7N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 18.3N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 19.3N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 20.0N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z 21.1N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 21.5N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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