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Tropical Depression Bud Forecast Discussion Number 24

2018-06-15 16:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151437 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Bud Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Bud's satellite presentation consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with the limited deep convection displaced in a band well to the northwest of the center. Assuming gradual weakening since the ASCAT passes overnight, the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, with those winds likely found over the Gulf of California to the east of the center. The shear is expected to remain strong through landfall, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by 12 hours and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of Sonora by early Saturday. The initial motion estimate is 360/10, and Bud should continue moving northward through dissipation between a mid-level ridge to the cyclone's east and an approaching longwave trough to its west. Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the southwest U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 25.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 27.2N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan/McElroy

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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 23

2018-06-15 10:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150835 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 The effect of the terrain of Baja California Sur and the increasing shear is disrupting Bud's structure. Water vapor images show a mid-level center moving fast to the northeast, while low cloud motions as well as surface observations indicate that the low-level center has been left behind over or near Baja. The low-level circulation is becoming elongated with most of the rain and weak convective bands displaced well to the northeast over the Gulf of California and northwestern Mexico. An earlier ASCAT pass showed a few 35-kt wind vectors within a very small area over water to the east of the center. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt in this advisory. Given the hostile environment, weakening is anticipated, and Bud is forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 hours, and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of Sonora. Now that the low-level center is becoming elongated, the initial motion is more difficult to ascertain. The best estimate is toward the north or 355 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within the southerly flow along the western side of a high pressure ridge. This persistent pattern should steer Bud toward the north until dissipation. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus. Since the tropical-storm-force winds are limited to a small area to the east of the center, the Government of Mexico discontinued the watches and warnings for Baja California Sur, and kept the watch for a portion of the mainland. Although Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest today and on Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 24.6N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 26.2N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 29.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2018-06-15 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150833 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 The center of the depression has been difficult to locate, although GOES-16 infrared satellite images and radar data from Acapulco suggest that the system as a whole has not moved very much. Deep convection has increased over the past few hours, but it bears little association with the estimated center and is focused primarily where low-level convergence is maximized near the coast. Although some strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, moderate northerly shear and the cyclone's proximity to land will likely limit the amount of intensification that can occur. The SHIPS guidance only shows modest strengthening, and the global models don't really deepen the low much, if any, before it moves inland. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS and HCCA models and is a little lower than the previous forecast at 48 h. A 72-hour point is provided inland for continuity, but the cyclone could dissipate before that time. The depression is currently stationary in a region absent of steering currents. However, as a low- to mid-level trough moves northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas in the coming days, that feature should cause the depression to drift northeastward and then northward, moving inland over southern Mexico between 48-72 hours. The new NHC forecast is slightly east of the previous one, following the preponderance of the available guidance. As noted before, there is lower-than-normal confidence in both the track and intensity forecasts. Changes to the forecast, as well as modifications to the warned areas, could be required in subsequent advisories if the location and size of the cyclone become clearer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 15.3N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 15.4N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.5N 99.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 15.8N 99.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 16.2N 99.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 16.9N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 22

2018-06-15 04:40:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150240 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Bud is skirting the southern coast of the Baja California Peninsula. There have been a few observations of tropical-storm- force winds near Cabo San Lucas earlier this evening. Since that time, the increasing interaction with the terrain of southern Baja California Sur has likely decreased its intensity slightly. In addition, convection is limited to a curved band that is about 100 n mi north of the center. Thus the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak CI-number from TAFB. After moving just west of due north for much of the day, Bud has made a jog to the north-northeast over the past few hours. This has delayed landfall over southern Baja California Sur this evening. Track guidance remains in excellent agreement on Bud resuming a north-northwestward track over the next 12 hours, taking the center across the southern Baja California Sur overnight. Bud is then expected to gradually accelerate as it turns northward and then north-northeastward on Friday over the central Gulf of California as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. Bud is then expected to make a second landfall over the Mexican state of Sonora by Friday evening. The storm should maintain its intensity overnight as the interaction with Baja California Sur is offset by the warmer waters of the Gulf of California, with these warmer waters likely supporting convective bands in the northeast quadrant. In addition, funneling in the Gulf of California could cause Bud to maintain tropical storm status for a little longer. By 24 hours, interaction with the terrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to weaken to a tropical depression before landfall over Sonora. Thereafter, the high terrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to become a remnant low by 36 hours, and dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner. Although Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 23.1N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 24.6N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 27.0N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 29.8N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2018-06-15 04:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150233 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Tropical Depression Four-E remains very disorganized. Last-light visible imagery showed that multiple low-level swirls are rotating around a mean center. IR imagery and radar data from the Mexican radar in Acapulco indicate that deep convection is largely limited to a broken band wrapping around the eastern half of the depression, with only a single burst of deep convection recently observed near the estimated center. Given the disorganized nature of the depression, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, though it is possible this is generous. Little change has been made to the intensity forecast. Although SSTs exceed 30 deg C along the forecast track, moderate vertical wind shear, close proximity to land, and the lack of an inner core should limit the intensification rate. Rapid weakening is likely following landfall, and the system is now forecast to dissipate within 96 h. The official forecast remains near the corrected consensus aid HCCA. The disorganized nature of the depression makes it difficult to identify and track a surface center, so the initial position and motion estimates are very uncertain. All of the global models indicate that the system will meander near the coast of Mexico for the next couple of days, ultimately drifting northward toward land. The NHC forecast is very close to a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and the previous track advisory. It is worth noting that confidence in both the track and intensity forecast is low. It is possible that the surface center could reform one or more times over the next couple of days, either bringing the system inland sooner than currently forecast or keeping it over water longer than expected. Large changes to the intensity or track forecasts may be required in future advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 15.4N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.6N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 15.8N 100.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.9N 99.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 16.2N 99.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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