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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-07-20 16:44:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 201444 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 The center of the depression remains difficult to find, but it appears to be near a small area of disorganized convection. As with the previous advisory, the satellite intensity estimates remain largely unchanged and the initial intensity is held at 25 kt. There is again no change to the intensity forecast thinking. A combination of shear from an upper-level low to the north and interaction with Tropical Storm Greg to the east should cause the depression to weaken and eventually dissipate. The intensity forecast has the system degenerating into a remnant low after 24 h and dissipating after 48 hr as it become absorbed into Greg. However, the system could decay to a remnant low at any time before then. The initial motion remains 245/5 kt. The depression is still expected to be advected slowly southwestward around the circulation of Greg until dissipation. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 13.4N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 12.9N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 12.1N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 11.6N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 11.6N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 35
2017-07-20 16:40:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201440 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Since the last advisory, Fernanda has become significantly sheared with the low-level center now exposed to the southwest of a rather small area of deep convection. The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates, and it is possible that this is generous. While the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should increase, a combination of continued moderate-to-strong shear and entrainment of dry air should keep Fernanda steadily weakening through the forecast period. The cyclone is forecast to weaken to a depression in 24-36 h and degenerate into a remnant low shortly thereafter, with the new intensity forecast being an update of the previous forecast. The now-exposed center is a little west of the previous advisory position, and the initial motion is now 285/8. Fernanda is expected to move generally west-northwestward through the forecast period as the increasingly weak and shallow vortex is steered by the low-level trade winds. The new forecast track is parallel to, but south of, the previous track based on the current position and motion. However, it lies to the north of the consensus models and the center of the guidance envelope, and if current trends continue some additional southward adjustment of the track could occur later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 18.2N 139.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 18.6N 140.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 19.0N 142.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 19.5N 144.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 20.1N 145.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 21.5N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 22.5N 154.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 24.0N 160.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 34
2017-07-20 10:46:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200846 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Fernanda is beginning to experience moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear, which has resulted in a pronounced degradation of the convective cloud pattern since the previous advisory. Recent AMSU and SSMI/S microwave satellite data indicate that the shear has tilted the vortex toward the north, resulting in the initial position being located a little south of the satellite fix positions and closer to the southwestern edge of the coldest cloud tops. The initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt based on a blend of consensus T-numbers of T3.5/55 kt and CI-numbers of T4.0/65 kt from both TAFB and SAB. Fernanda's motion is now 290/08 kt. The weakening cyclone is expected to continue moving generally west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a broad deep-layer subtropical ridge for about the next 72 hours. By days 4 and 5, a faster westward motion is forecast as the shallow vortex comes under the influence of the brisk low-level easterly trade wind flow. The latest GFS model run appears to keep Fernanda too strong and vertically deep after 48 h, which has resulted in a track well north of any of the other model guidance. As a result, the new NHC forecast has been shifted a little south of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, and is then close to the middle of the guidance envelope after that. Fernanda should steadily succumb to the effects of cooler water, drier air, and shear increasing to 30 kt throughout the forecast period, resulting in weakening and degeneration into a remnant low by around 48 hours. It is possible that the system could even open up into a tropical wave by 96-120 hours when it is passing just north of the Hawaiian Islands. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 18.2N 137.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 18.5N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.0N 140.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 19.5N 142.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 20.1N 144.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z 21.6N 147.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z 22.7N 152.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z 23.8N 158.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm GREG Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-07-20 10:45:52| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-07-20 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200836 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 It has been difficult to locate the center this evening, and the circulation of the depression appears to be limited to a shallow layer near the surface. The cloud pattern is unchanged and deep convection remains limited to a single band in the southwestern quadrant. Satellite intensity estimates remain largely unchanged since the previous advisory, and the initial intensity is held at 25 kt. There is no change to the intensity forecast thinking. A combination of shear from an upper-level low to the north and interaction with Tropical Storm Greg to the east should prevent the depression from gaining any organization, causing the system to gradually weaken. Most of the dynamical guidance suggests that the cyclone will no longer have a well-defined center within the next 48 hours or so, and only a slight decrease in convective organization would cause the system to become a remnant low. A WindSat overpass around 0200 UTC suggested that the circulation was already becoming elongated, so dissipation could occur sooner than indicated. The initial motion remains 245/5 kt. The depression is still expected to be advected generally southwestward, around the circulation of Tropical Storm Greg. The track models have all shifted slightly westward, so the NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little in that direction, but otherwise no significant changes have been made. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 13.7N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 13.2N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 12.5N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 12.0N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0600Z 11.6N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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