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Hurricane HILARY Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-07-24 16:43:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 241443 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Satellite images indicate that Hilary has a small central core of convection, with both the visible and infrared channels suggesting that an eye is trying to form. Microwave data also show an incomplete eyewall, though the system is so small that most sensors don't have the necessary resolution to really see the center. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt, a bit above the satellite fixes given the recent upward organization trend. Interestingly, despite the hurricane having intensified about 30 kt in the past 24 hours, model guidance this morning really backed off on the future strengthening of Hilary, with most guidance no longer showing it becoming a major hurricane. It is difficult to believe the new model runs because the environment seems similarly favorable for at least the next day or so, with perhaps some increase in northerly shear in about 48 hours. For now, the latest NHC forecast is reduced just a little bit beyond 24 hours, owing to the possible increase in shear, but still lies at or above all of the guidance. The initial motion estimate is 295/7. A ridge that extends into the eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States is forecast to strengthen slightly over the next couple of days, which should steer Hilary a bit faster to the west-northwest during that time. The long-range forecast is a mess with the likelihood of some binary interaction with TS Irwin, leading to a large model spread by day 5. Dynamical guidance has been trending toward more interaction, although the GFS/HMON models are well off to the northeast of the rest of the guidance. The NHC prediction is close to the previous one, putting a little more weight on the binary interaction solutions, which results in a small westward shift of the forecast at long range. Obviously this type of forecast has large uncertainty. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 104.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 14.6N 105.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.2N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 15.9N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 16.5N 110.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 17.7N 114.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 18.7N 118.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 19.5N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-07-24 16:36:25| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017
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Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-07-24 11:20:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 The convective structure of Irwin has improved quite a bit this evening. A recent AMSU microwave pass at 0541 UTC suggests that deep convection is wrapping nearly all the way around a developing mid-level eye. It isn't yet clear if this feature is aligned with the low-level center. Current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0600 UTC were all 45 kt, so that value has been set as the initial intensity. Determining the initial motion of Irwin has been tricky, since recent microwave fixes of the center between 2100 UTC yesterday and 0600 UTC today suggest that the center has barely moved during that time. It is assumed that at least some westward motion is still occuring, and the initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/5 kt. In the short term, Irwin should continue slowly westward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. At days 4 and 5, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the degree to which Irwin's track will be affected by Hurricane Hilary to the east, with the global models still generally showing more and the regional models less interaction. Although the NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the north at day 5, it assumes that only a little interaction will take place, and remains south of the GFS and ECMWF consensus. The environment in the short-term still appears favorable for intensification and the guidance is a little higher for this advisory. The NHC forecast now calls for Irwin to become a hurricane within 24 hours. After about 2 days, outflow from Hilary should begin to reach Irwin, resulting in an increase in vertical shear. The ECMWF model in particular shows a large increase in shear at days 3-5, and the NHC forecast therefore begins to show gradual weakening at that time. The intensity forecast is near the HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.8N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 14.8N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 14.8N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 14.8N 119.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 14.8N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 14.4N 122.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 14.5N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 15.7N 124.1W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN
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Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-07-24 10:49:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240849 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 The convective structure of Irwin has improved quite a bit this evening. A recent AMSU microwave pass at 0541 UTC suggests that deep convection is wrapping nearly all the way around a developing mid-level eye. It isn't yet clear if this feature is aligned with the low-level center. Current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0600 UTC were all 45 kt, so that value has been set as the initial intensity. Determining the initial motion of Irwin has been tricky, since recent microwave fixes of the center between 2100 UTC yesterday and 0600 UTC today suggest that the center has barely moved during that time. It is assumed that at least some westward motion is still occuring, and the initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/5 kt. In the short term, Irwin should continue slowly westward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. At days 4 and 5, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the degree to which Irwin's track will be affected by Hurricane Hilary to the east, with the global models still generally showing more and the regional models less interaction. Although the NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the north at day 5, it assumes that only a little interaction will take place, and remains south of the GFS and ECMWF. The environment in the short-term still appears favorable for intensification and the guidance is a little higher for this advisory. The NHC forecast now calls for Irwin to become a hurricane within 24 hours. After about 2 days, outflow from Hilary should begin to reach Irwin, resulting in an increase in vertical shear. The ECMWF model in particular shows a large increase in shear at days 3-5, and the NHC forecast therefore begins to show gradual weakening at that time. The intensity forecast is near the HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.8N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 14.8N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 14.8N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 14.8N 119.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 14.8N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 14.4N 122.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 14.5N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 15.7N 124.1W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 28
2017-07-24 10:48:25| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017
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