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Tropical Depression Seven-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2017-07-17 22:35:07| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 24

2017-07-17 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Although the central convection has eroded slightly, Fernanda remains a well-organized tropical cyclone. The upper-level outflow is well defined over most of the circulation and the cloud pattern remains quite symmetric in appearance. The current intensity estimate remains 110 kt, which is a blend of the various subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Since Fernanda will be traversing decreasing sea surface temperatures, gradual weakening is likely during the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, vertical shear, associated with a large upper-level trough near the Hawaiian Islands, should result in more rapid weakening. The official intensity forecast is very close to the model consensus. The motion is bending slightly to the right and slowing. The mid-level ridge to the north of Fernanda is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days. This should cause a turn toward the northwest with a little more slowing in forward speed over the next 48 hours. Later in the forecast period, a more leftward heading is likely while the ridge rebuilds somewhat. The official forecast track is only slightly north of the previous one and is close to the model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 14.1N 131.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 14.8N 132.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.7N 133.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.5N 134.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 17.1N 136.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 17.9N 139.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 18.3N 142.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 18.8N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Seven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2017-07-17 16:46:05| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 23

2017-07-17 16:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171440 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Fernanda's eye has - once again - become clear in the shortwave infrared imagery with a slightly asymmetric ring of very cold cloud tops surrounding the 15 nm eye. A blend of the subjective Dvorak fixes from SAB/TAFB along with the objective Advanced Dvorak Technique gives 110 kt intensity, maintaining Fernanda as a Category 3 hurricane. In the short term, the SSTs beneath Fernanda will gradually cool, reaching 26C in about 36 hours. By days 4 and 5, the vertical shear should go up substantially due to Fernanda moving closer to a tropical upper-tropospheric trough. Thus the official intensity forecast shows steady weakening with the system becoming a remnant low around day 5. This forecast is closest to a blend of the LGEM and D-SHIPS statistical intensity schemes, as well as the HCCA corrected consensus technique. (The HWRF and COAMPS dynamical models appear to hold on to too strong a system at days 3 and beyond, based upon the environment that Fernanda is expected to encounter.) The hurricane is tracking toward the west-northwest at about 9 kt. Fernanda is expected to turn slightly toward the northwest during the next couple of days as it moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. By days 3 to 5, the system should turn back toward the west as it gets advected along in the low-level flow as a weakening tropical cyclone. The NHC forecast is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory and is based upon the TVCN multi-model consensus technique. The initial wind radii were maintained based on the earlier 0542Z and 0626Z ASCAT scatterometer overpasses. The forecast wind radii are based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.7N 130.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 14.4N 132.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 15.3N 133.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 16.1N 134.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.8N 135.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 17.5N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 17.9N 142.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 18.3N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 22

2017-07-17 10:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170832 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 The eye of Fernanda is not as distinct as it was over the past day or so and appears cloud-filled at times in satellite images. The cloud tops surrounding the eye, however, remain very cold and the extent of the area of deep convection has grown since yesterday. In addition, the convective pattern remains fairly symmetric due to the light wind shear conditions. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 5.5/102 kt, and the ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are a little higher. Based on these estimates, the initial wind speed is held at 105 kt. Fernanda is beginning to pull away from the warmest waters, and it is expected to track over progressively cooler waters during the next few days. These less favorable oceanic conditions combined with a drier and more stable air mass and an increase in westerly wind shear should cause Fernanda to steadily weaken through the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and is in good agreement with the consensus models. Fernanda continues to move to the west-northwest at 10 kt, steered by the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. A trough to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge and should cause Fernanda to move west-northwestward to northwestward at a slower pace during the next few days. After that time, the trough is expected to lift out allowing a ridge to rebuild to the north of the tropical cyclone. This should cause the system to turn toward the west by the end of the forecast period. The track models are tightly clustered, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. The initial 34-kt wind radii were adjusted based on a 0542 UTC ASCAT-B overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.4N 130.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 14.1N 131.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 15.0N 132.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 16.0N 133.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 16.7N 135.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 17.6N 138.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 17.9N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 18.2N 145.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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