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PUB Discussion Guide for Meeting

2017-07-18 18:11:38| PortlandOnline

PDF Document, 70kbCategory: July 18, 2017 Materials

Tropical Storm Don Forecast Discussion Number 4

2017-07-18 16:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 181456 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 18 2017 Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical storm has weakened this morning. The highest flight-level and SFMR observations support an intensity of 30-35 kt and the data also show that the circulation has become less defined and in fact it may lack a closed surface circulation. Advisories are being maintained for now pending another reconnaissance aircraft mission later today. Increasing westerly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to continue to weaken the tropical cyclone as it moves through the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean during the next day or so. The NHC forecast calls for Don to weaken to a tropical depression in about 24 hours and degenerate into a an open wave within 36 hours. This could occur much sooner than indicated below. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Don should continue to move quickly westward within the strong trade wind flow until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 11.5N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 11.7N 60.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 12.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2017-07-18 16:46:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181446 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located well southwest of the Baja California peninsula developed closer to the system's center overnight. It has also produced convection for more than 24 hours despite strong northwesterly shear. Based on the recent slight improvement in organization, and Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 and 2.5 from SAB and TAFB, advisories are initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression. A large upper-level low centered to its north-northwest is currently imparting about 25-30 kt of shear over the system. The shear is not expected to lessen during the next day or two, and only slight strengthening is indicated in the official forecast during that time. After 72 hours, the upper-level wind pattern could become less hostile which could allow for some strengthening if the tropical cyclone survives the shear over the next couple of days. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is of low confidence. The depression has been moving slowly westward or west- northwestward, but is expected to begin a slow southwestward motion later today, which is due in part to the circulation of Tropical Storm Greg to its east. Later in the forecast period, as Greg passes to its north, the tropical cyclone should begin to move west- northwestward at a faster forward speed. An alternative scenario shown by the GFS and UKMET models is for the depression to weaken and be absorbed by the circulation of Greg in a few days. Given the possible interaction of Greg, the confidence in the track forecast is also quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.6N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 14.6N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 14.3N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 13.8N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 13.4N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 13.0N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 13.3N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 27

2017-07-18 16:36:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181436 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Fernanda's eye is only intermittently visible in the shortwave infrared imagery this morning. The deep convection is still quite cold and symmetric around the center and a 1016Z AMSR2 microwave image showed that a nearly complete eyewall was present. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB and the objective ADT have dropped slightly, so an initial intensity of 85 kt is analyzed. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at 8 kt. Fernanda's motion is being influenced by a deep-layer subtropical ridge to its northeast and a mid-level trough to its northwest. In a couple of days, the trough lifts out and a mid-level ridge builds in north of Fernanda causing the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the west-northwest or west. The official track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model track consensus and is nearly identical to the previous advisory. Fernanda should continue to steadily weaken during the next couple of days as it ingests stable, dry air over increasingly cooler SSTs. In two to three days, southwesterly vertical shear should substantially increase and further contribute to Fernanda's weakening. The official intensity forecast - nearly the same as from the previous advisory - is based upon a blend of the LGEM/SHIPS statistical guidance and the COAMPS mesoscale hurricane model. No scatterometer or AMSU size measurements have been available recently, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been maintained. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 15.6N 133.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 16.3N 134.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 17.0N 135.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 17.5N 136.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 18.0N 138.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 18.8N 141.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 19.5N 145.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/1200Z 20.0N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 4

2017-07-18 10:40:36| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

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