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Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-07-22 16:56:18| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-22 16:55:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221455 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102014 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 I thought there was no more room for another cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin, but nature managed to produce another one. The disturbance that NHC has been monitoring for several days has finally developed enough circulation and convection to be classified as a tropical depression, the sixth cyclone that has formed in the month of July. The center is located on the northern edge of a circular mass of deep convection and, based of an average of Dvorak numbers, it is being assigned an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is in between TS Greg and TD 9-E, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening. However, most of the global models show a decrease of the shear in the next few days, and this will allow some intensification. The depression is trapped south of a subtropical ridge and is moving toward the west at about 6 kt. The nose of the ridge is forecast to amplify westward, and this flow pattern will likely force the cyclone on a slow west and then west-southwest track during the next five days. Most of the guidance agree with this solution, but one must use caution since there could be some interaction with Tropical Depression Nine-E which increases the forecast uncertainty. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.7N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 14.8N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 15.0N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 13.5N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-07-22 16:54:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221454 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 The depression has failed to strengthen as previously indicated, and both the circulation and the convection are not currently as organized as it seemed to be 24 hours ago when advisories were initiated. Microwave data reveal that the center appears to be located on the south side of the main convection, and the low and mid-level centers are not aligned. Based on Dvorak numbers, the maximum winds are estimated at 30 kt. Having said that, the depression is expected to move through a very favorable moist environment of low shear during the next several days, and the ocean is plenty warm. With these conditions present, the NHC forecast insists on strengthening and still anticipates that the depression will become a hurricane in about 48 hours. Guidance is a little bit less aggressive than earlier but still forecasts intensification. With the low-level center difficult to locate, the initial motion has become uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 10 kt. A persistent subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the Pacific will keep steering the cyclone on the same general track for the next five days. This is the solution provided by track guidance which, in fact, is tightly clustered. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight envelope, and is not very different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 10.0N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 10.5N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 11.6N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 12.5N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 13.5N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-07-22 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220833 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 The satellite appearance of the depression hasn't changed much during the past 6 hours, and the intensity remains 30 kt based on an average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Most of the convection is still removed from the center and limited to the western half of the circulation. That said, the intensity forecast thinking hasn't changed, and the environment is still expected to support strengthening throughout the forecast period. Given the current structure of the storm, significant intensification doesn't seem imminent. However, looking at the medium-term, the SHIPS-RII probability of an increase of 65 kt in 72 hours is up to 44 percent. The new intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous forecast for the first 48 h, but similar after that. The forecast remains above all of the guidance for the first two days, and near the SHIPS model after that. The initial motion is 285/11 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico to western Mexico is the primary steering feature for next few days, and the models are in good agreement on a steady northwestward track beginning later today. All of the global models depict the ridge strengthening after about 72 h, but the extent to which the cyclone responds by turning toward the west varies somewhat. In the models with a stronger vortex, most notably the GFS, a weak upper-level low prevents the storm from turning too sharply toward the west. A weaker modeled storm, as depicted in the UKMET and HWRF would turn almost due west. Overall, the guidance has shifted a little to the west for this advisory, so the forecast has been nudged in that direction. It now lies on the right side of the envelope, favoring the stronger solution of the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 9.6N 96.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 10.1N 98.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 11.1N 100.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 12.1N 101.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 13.2N 103.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 15.1N 106.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 16.8N 109.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 19
2017-07-22 04:53:36| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017
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